Greetings, The United States: The maximum fed funds rate in this cycle is expected to be around 3.0 – 3.5%. It does not leave sufficient room to cut rates in the next recession unless the Fed takes the rate below zero or restarts QE. Many states will get hit hard without a more traditional …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The market reaction to Friday’s upside wage growth surprise was far more benign than after a similar report in February. Volatility across key markets has been flat since Friday. China: While China has a record trade surplus with the US, the nation runs a deficit with other major trading …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 11th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US consumers, especially those with higher incomes, are increasingly concerned about tariffs. China: China’s export growth appears to be overstated based on trade data reported by the nation’s trading partners. The Eurozone: Sweden’s central bank (Riksbank) pushed out its forecast for rate increases – again. It also downgraded …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 7th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Manufacturing reports continue to show rapid inventory build. The Daily Feather: – Major restocking tends to coincide with the economy emerging from a recession, making the current inventory build unusual – in a bad way. Fear is driving companies to overbuild inventories. Transportation bottlenecks and worries over future higher-priced input …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 5th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US farm income continues to trend lower. The second chart below shows the regional changes. China: China’s shrinking labor force will become a drag on growth. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s consumer inflation was softer than expected, with the core CPI stuck at 1%. Equity Markets: Fewer stocks …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 4th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: For now, there are no signs of acceleration in labor costs. Here is Goldman’s wage growth tracker. China: The Capital Economics China GDP tracker is moving lower again. The Eurozone: The unemployment rate varies drastically across the Eurozone. Equity Markets: Fund managers have become extremely overweight US …
Greetings, The United States: Oxford Economics is forecasting weaker business investment growth going forward. China: China’s domestic bond issuance has slowed. The Eurozone: Investors are concerned that the new Italian government will embark on a more expansionary fiscal policy. The political parties in charge are still very popular. Here are some debt-to-GDP …
Greetings, The United States: With oil prices no longer climbing, the US CPI is expected to moderate in the months to come. China: Pollution in Beijing seems to be easing. The Eurozone: Over the past few years, foreign investors have been buying European stocks but exiting the euro area debt investments. …
Greetings, The United States: The August SMI (Sales Manager Index) report from World Economics also shows strong business activity in August. Business confidence keeps improving, and hiring has accelerated. More firms are boosting sales prices. China: Growth in outward tourism has been a drag on China’s current account. The Eurozone: Here are …
Greetings, The United States: It’s important to keep in mind that consumer confidence measures in the US tend to be politically biased. The average trends, however, still tend to be very useful for economists. China: The nation’s housing supply has been tightening, boosting residential construction activity (which, in addition to anti-pollution regulation, raised …
