The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2018



The United States: The maximum fed funds rate in this cycle is expected to be around 3.0 – 3.5%.

Source: Nomura Securities

It does not leave sufficient room to cut rates in the next recession unless the Fed takes the rate below zero or restarts QE. Many states will get hit hard without a more traditional Fed policy response.

Source:, h/t Paul Menestrier; Read full article


China: China’s stock market keeps drifting lower.

Source: The Daily Shot


The Eurozone: Italian banks still own massive amounts of the nation’s government debt. What happens if Italy’s bonds get downgraded to the point that they become ineligible as collateral at the ECB?

Source: Goldman Sachs


Equity Markets: The market is still ignoring the massive China tariffs that will be announced shortly. Businesses, however, are boosting their lobbying efforts.

Source: @WSJ; Read full article


Global Developments: These charts rank nations by the percentage of domestic ownership of government debt.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


Emerging Markets: Here is the EM sovereign ratings map from Moody’s.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service


Food for Thought: Which cities’ property markets will benefit the most from Amazon choosing them for the firm’s second headquarters?

Source: Mr. Cooper





Edited by Joseph Cohen

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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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