The Daily Shot Brief – August 17th, 2018



The United States: It’s important to keep in mind that consumer confidence measures in the US tend to be politically biased. The average trends, however, still tend to be very useful for economists.

Source: @TheTerminal


China: The nation’s housing supply has been tightening, boosting residential construction activity (which, in addition to anti-pollution regulation, raised steel prices).

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics


The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s economy is about to close its output gap. Should we expect a spike in inflation?

Source: @economics, @JMurray804, @davidjpowell24; Read full article

Here is the euro area capacity utilization vs. the CPI.

Source: Fitch Solutions


Equity Markets: Net US equity fund flows remain negative.

Source: Credit Suisse


Global Developments: Trade linkages with Turkey are relatively contained (Russa mostly exports energy to Turkey).

Source: Fitch Solutions

However, here is the financial sensitivity to Turkey.

Source: Goldman Sachs


Emerging Markets: Many EM economies are less vulnerable now than in 2008 (“OE” = Oxford Economics)

Source: Oxford Economics


Food for Thought: Confirmation timing for Supreme Court nominees:

Source:, h/t Paul Menestrier; Read full article




Edited by Joseph Cohen

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