The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2017



The United States: How close is the next recession? Credit Suisse says we are nowhere near the end of the cycle.

• This expansion has been quite long by historical standards. However, given how slow the recovery has been, the cycle could end up extending further (potentially creating even bigger asset bubbles?).

Source: Credit Suisse

• While the yield curve has flattened significantly, it has not inverted.

Source: Credit Suisse

• Here is what the key metrics looked like prior to the previous six recessions.

Source: Credit Suisse


The Eurozone: The EUR-USD cross-currency swap basis is widening. It suggests tighter dollar funding conditions for European banks that don’t have access to US deposits.

Source: Bloomberg


Emerging Markets: Romania’s government hasn’t raised any debt this month, blaming “unacceptable” yield levels. Those greedy debt markets – how dare they demand a higher interest.

Source: The Daily Shot


Equity Markets: Has regulation taken a toll on IBM and Microsoft? What does it mean for the current leading tech firms who could be facing fresh regulatory scrutiny?

Source: Barrons, @jessefelder; Read full article


Credit: CLO volume has spiked this year (a big portion of the increase has been all the refinancing deals).

Source:; Read full article


Rates: Credit Suisse sees the tax-reform driven bond selloff as premature. Given the deteriorating budget deficit (see #3 here), any significant tax cuts that could justify the “reflation trade” are unlikely.

Source: Credit Suisse


Food for Thought: Ivy league degrees at various institutions.

Source: @AEI; Read full article

Edited by Joseph N Cohen

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