The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2017



The United States: Small businesses increasingly see their local economic conditions as being better than the national situation.


Source: MetLife & U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index; Read full article

Unrelated:  The probability of two Fed rate hikes between now and the end of the first quarter rose above 50%.

Source: Bloomberg


China: China’s outbound investment dipped, as Beijing clamps down on large foreign acquisitions.

Source: @business; Read full article


Credit: Many leveraged loan documents these days permit big dividend payments by the company. While it’s not usually an issue in this economy, lenders will regret this development when cash flow becomes more constrained. The green line represents the “restricted payment” score (which is very loose now).

Source: Moody’s Investors Service


Equity Markets: The US market looks massively overvalued relative to the rest of the world.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service

That’s why flows into non-US ETFs have been so brisk.

Source: Credit Suisse


Energy Markets: Last quarter, China drove the bulk of the global oil demand growth.

Source: @chris1reuters, @IEA


Global Developments: This table shows the demographic risks (aging population) around the world.

Source: Moody’s Investors Service


Food for Thought: Alexa, Siri, Cortana, and Google compared.

Source: @WSJGraphics, @josephncohen; Read full article

Edited by Joseph N Cohen

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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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