Greetings,
The United States: The spread between Conference Board’s “Jobs Plentiful” and “Jobs Hard to Get” indices points to a faster wage growth ahead.
The voluntary quits rate tells a similar story.
Equity Markets: US Q1 corporate earnings growth has outperformed that of other developed economies (EAFE).
The United Kingdom: The UK’s CPI should continue to slow, even as the service-sector inflation picks up.
The World Price Index for the UK also points to a near-term moderation in the CPI.
Energy Markets: The US pipeline infrastructure bottleneck is becoming acute as the spread between Brent and the Permian crude blows out.
Emerging Markets: Business sentiment has worsened across EM economies, suggesting slower growth ahead.
Eurozone: Here is the detail of Germany’s business confidence report from the Ifo Institute.
Rates: Switching from inflation targeting to “price-level” targeting by the Fed may not be such a great idea. In the current environment, for example, the Fed would have to run the economy “hot” for years to compensate for inflation being below target over such an extended period.
China: Is the demand for dollar-denominated Chinese corporate debt about to slow?
Credit: Muni fund flows have turned negative again.
Food for Thought: Online grocery shopping.
Edited by Joseph N Cohen
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