The Daily Shot Brief – April 24th, 2018




The United States: Is the recent improvement in CapEx at risk now? Below we have some data from the NFIB (small businesses) as well as the Philly Fed.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics


Equity Markets: The “M&A targets” basket has been outperforming. All that corporate cash has to go somewhere.

Source: @chartoftheday; Read full article


The United Kingdom: The Bank of England does not hike rates when growth is unusually low. And the first quarter is a good candidate for a low-growth scenario.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

The markets agree.

Source: Bloomberg


Energy Markets: Has oil become a crowded trade? Here is the ratio of money managers’ long-to-short positions in crude oil futures.

Source: @JKempEnergy


Emerging Markets: Venezuela’s defaulted bonds have rallied this year amid hopes for a regime change. Best of luck with this one …

Source:, h/t Paul Menestrier; Read full article


Eurozone: Economists’ expectations for the first-quarter euro-area GDP look terrible.

Source: Capital Economics


Rates: Does the yield curve flattening suggest that VIX will be moving higher in the next few years?

Source: Morgan Stanley, @bySamRo


China: Nonfinancial corporations continue to deleverage.

Source: IIF


Global Developments: The projected net government borrowing by the US stands out relative to other advanced economies.

Source: IIF


Food for Thought: The boost in post-tax earnings by income category as a result of the new US tax law

Source: Capital Economics



Edited by Joseph N Cohen

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