The United States: Is the recent improvement in CapEx at risk now? Below we have some data from the NFIB (small businesses) as well as the Philly Fed.
Equity Markets: The “M&A targets” basket has been outperforming. All that corporate cash has to go somewhere.
The United Kingdom: The Bank of England does not hike rates when growth is unusually low. And the first quarter is a good candidate for a low-growth scenario.
The markets agree.
Energy Markets: Has oil become a crowded trade? Here is the ratio of money managers’ long-to-short positions in crude oil futures.
Emerging Markets: Venezuela’s defaulted bonds have rallied this year amid hopes for a regime change. Best of luck with this one …
Eurozone: Economists’ expectations for the first-quarter euro-area GDP look terrible.
Rates: Does the yield curve flattening suggest that VIX will be moving higher in the next few years?
China: Nonfinancial corporations continue to deleverage.
Global Developments: The projected net government borrowing by the US stands out relative to other advanced economies.
Food for Thought: The boost in post-tax earnings by income category as a result of the new US tax law
Edited by Joseph N Cohen
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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen), Ycharts.com, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.
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