The Daily Shot® Brief

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The United States: Pantheon Macroeconomics expects a similar gain.

The United Kingdom: UK real estate investment grew by 26% in 2024.

Cryptocurrency: Cryptos improved this week, with XRP and DeFi tokens significantly outperforming BTC.

Commodities: Fertilizer companies dropped on news of a possible end to the Ukraine-Russia war.

Equities: A breakout for the Nasdaq 100?

Food for Thought: China’s death rate continues to exceed its birth rate.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Investors are covering short positions in TIPS amid concerns over persistent inflation.

The United Kingdom: This divergence between new housing instructions and new buyer inquiries suggests improving supply but moderating demand in the UK housing market.

India: India’s headline CPI slowed more than expected last month.

Equities: Small caps remain under pressure, with the S&P 600’s 12-month underperformance now surpassing 10%.

Commodities: If gold sustains this week’s gains, it will extend its winning streak to seven weeks.

Emerging Markets: The market is pricing in a sharp rise in Ukraine’s GDP amid hopes of an end to the war.

The Russian ruble surged.

Food for Thought: Global e-commerce revenue trends:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Market-based inflation expectations continue to rise.

Equities: Is the S&P 500 poised to retest resistance at 6,100?

China: MSCI China earnings momentum has been narrow.

Commodities: Chicago hog futures gained on Tuesday.

Alternatives: Here’s a comparison of private equity sector weights versus public small caps.

Food for Thought: Income needed for a family of four:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: Few firms are mentioning inflation on earnings calls.

Equities: The Magnificent 7’s massive earnings growth advantage over the rest of the S&P 500 is narrowing.

China: Hong Kong stocks have significantly outperformed mainland shares as capital from the mainland flows into Hong Kong.

Commodities: COMEX copper has sharply outperformed LME copper amid tariff risks.

The Eurozone: The pace of spread narrowing between the euro short-term rate and the deposit facility rate has increased as excess liquidity declined.

Credit: Portfolio trading in investment-grade credit has surged, now accounting for over 20% of dealer-to-client volume, as systematic investors embrace bulk bond transactions for efficiency and liquidity.

Food for Thought: Women outpace men in college enrollment in most countries.

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: The unemployment rate eased further.

The United Kingdom: The UK labor market faces headwinds (see comment below).

Cryptocurrency: Here is a look at the year-to-date performance across selected cryptos.

Commodities: Investment demand for gold is expected to rise.

Equities: Stocks have lagged behind the S&P 500 after reporting earnings.

Food for Thought: Podcast genre preferences in 2023 and 2024:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: Job cut announcements edged higher in January.

The United Kingdom: Companies are increasing their forecasts for output price gains.

India: The RBI finally cut rates.

Cryptocurrency: Assets under management in US Bitcoin ETFs have soared over the past year, although recently, demand has cooled.

Commodities: Copper broke above a seven-month-long downtrend.

Equities: The iShares MSCI Momentum ETF is testing a key trendline resistance.

Food for Thought: A sharp drop in kindergarten vaccination rates for measles, polio, and whooping cough:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Equities: The rise in the S&P 500 last year was one of the strongest since 1928 and was mostly driven by valuation expansion.

Credit: Leveraged loan issuance saw its strongest January in over a decade as loan spreads keep tightening.

The United States: The trade deficit neared $100 billion in December as imports surged.

Canada: Canada’s trade balance swung into surplus for the first time in ten months.

Emerging Markets: Ukraine’s bond prices are soaring on hopes of a potential end to the war.

Commodities: Gold lease rates have surged to multi-year highs, reflecting extreme tightness in the market as traders rush to secure bullion ahead of potential US tariffs.

Food for Thought: Generative AI adoption outpaces prior technologies.

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: US job openings dropped in December, falling short of expectations.

Japan: The yen strengthened in response to wage growth data, with dollar-yen nearing its 200-day moving average.

China: Services growth slowed last month.

Equities: Companies generating a significant share of revenue from government sales have been outperforming.

Commodities: Gold reached another record high.

Food for Thought: Homelessness rates across OECD countries:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: If the newly announced tariffs take effect, US tariff levels could revert to those last seen in the 1940s, marking a significant shift in trade policy.

According to the ISM Manufacturing PMI, US factory activity returned to growth in January.

Equities: How did the market respond to tariff risks on Monday?

This chart shows the impact of previous US trade war announcements on S&P 500 volatility.

China: China’s household consumption remains unusually low as a share of GDP compared to both upper-middle and high-income economies, highlighting a structural imbalance in domestic demand.

Cryptocurrency: Tariff announcements weighed on bitcoin.

Commodities: Gold hit a record high.

Food for Thought: Hawaiian Airlines leads US in on-time arrivals.

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

Canada: Which sectors in Canada are most vulnerable to US tariffs?

Emerging Markets: Which sectors in Mexico are most exposed to tariffs.

The Eurozone: Demand for downside protection on the euro surged relative to upside protection.

The United States: Importers have been getting ready for tariffs.

China: Manufacturing growth is stalling as employment contracts.

Global Developments: Last month’s bond performance:

Food for Thought: Shipments of Champagne:

Edited by William Villacis

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