The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States:  Economists upgraded their forecasts for next year’s GDP growth, with no recession expected over the next few quarters.

US financial conditions eased sharply this month, with the largest monthly decline in Goldman’s indicator in recent decades.

Cryptocurrency: Roughly 83% of the total BTC circulating supply is held in profit, similar to the 2021 bull market highs.

Equities: Here are sector earnings growth expectations for 2024.

32% of large-cap mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks this year, with underperformance driven by underallocation to tech megacaps.

Commodities: Iron ore prices extended losses as Beijing jawbones the commodity lower.

Emerging Markets: India’s fiscal deficit is on a downward trend.

Food for Thought: Members of Congress not seeking re-election:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The revised inflation expectations data from the University of Michigan highlight consumers’ concerns about inflation resurgence.

The United Kingdom: The CBI report showed deteriorating industrial goods demand.

Asia-Pacific: After last year’s plateau, South Korea’s household debt is reaching record highs.

Commodities: Gold is trading above $2,000, widening its divergence with US real yields (chart shows inverted 10-year TIPS yield).

Energy: Brent crude is back below $70/bbl.

Equities: Goldman’s sentiment indicator:

Food for Thought: Ultra-processed foods:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Philly Fed’s NBOS index, which monitors activity among the region’s services companies, continues to reflect subdued performance.

The United Kingdom: The official measure of home prices has been remarkably resilient.

China: The stock market bounce wasn’t sustained.

Cryptocurrency: Binance’s CEO stepped down.

Commodities: Cocoa prices continue to hit multi-decade highs.

Equities: Goldman expects share buybacks to drive net equity demand next year.

Food for Thought: Median student debt by college major:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

Equities: Main US stock market indices are now in overbought territory.

Rates: When will the Treasury curve inversion end? Here is a forecast from BofA.

The United States: The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) has recorded its 19th consecutive monthly decline.

The Eurozone: Risk premia in equities and corporate bonds remain resilient despite softer economic conditions.

Asia-Pacific: Asian currencies are surging (the second panel shows the Taiwan dollar).

Emerging Markets: The markets cheered the defeat of the Peronist government in Argentina’s presidential election.

Food for Thought: Thanksgiving dinner inflation:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Consumers view the current buying climate for houses as the worst in recent history.

More Americans are reporting challenges in obtaining credit.

Equities:  The last correction wasn’t unusual.

China: The renminbi is rebounding.

Emerging Markets: Risk appetite is rising in the EM FX market.

The Eurozone: Here are EU companies with the highest profit per employee.

Food for Thought: Generative AI is sending shockwaves through the online freelancing world:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Initial jobless claims are near the lowest levels in recent years.

The United Kingdom: The UK stands out when it comes to foreign direct investment.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough week for cryptos, with XRP underperforming top peers.

Commodities: US wheat futures continue to trend lower.

Equities: Analysts continue to downgrade their Q4 earnings estimates.

Food for Thought: EV sales in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States:  More firms are reporting expensive financing as a problem.

Mortgage applications edged higher again as mortgage rates ease from multi-year highs.

Equities: Bullish options bets on small caps are hitting record highs.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is up almost 130% year-to-date.

Emerging Markets: India’s trade gap hit a record high as imports surge.

The United Kingdom: The UK CPI report was a bit softer than expected.

Food for Thought: Here are the largest tea exporters:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: It appears that core inflation is settling around 3%, which is a concern for the Fed.

Equities: The earnings revision breadth has worsened for both large and small caps.

Small caps continue to widen their underperformance.

Rates: US reserve balances have been rising as the Fed’s RRP facility balances dip below $1 trillion.

The Eurozone: The rotation into longer-dated (higher-yielding) deposits has been reducing the money supply.

China: The decline in shadow bank financing could weigh on infrastructure investment despite recent stabilization.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “greed” territory after spending most of the past two months in the “fear” zone.

Food for Thought: K-12 school shootings:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: US consumer sentiment declined again this month.

The United Kingdom: The Rightmove index showed home prices declining further this month.

China: Housing is becoming a smaller part of China’s economy.

Energy: Clean energy shares remain under pressure.

Equities: Cyclicals continue to outperform defensives.

Rates: Treasury net issuance will remain elevated.

Food for Thought: US college admissions test scores:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Healthcare workers, public school teachers, and restaurant/hotel workers drove a large portion of the job gains this year.

The United Kingdom: The GDP report was a bit better than expected, with September growth boosted by services.

Europe: Here is a look at business and household financing rates in the Eurozone.

Commodities: Flash memory prices are rebounding.

Equities: Retail investors don’t seem to be chasing the current rally.

Credit: Business loans held on banks’ balance sheets are now down on a year-over-year basis.

Food for Thought: The most-spoken language in each state besides English and Spanish:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief