Greetings, The United States: First, last month’s retail sales surprised to the upside. Here are the contributions to the headline figure, with gasoline pulling spending lower due to lower prices. The United Kingdom: UK inflation exceeded forecasts. Here are the topline contributions. Asia – Pacific: Australia unexpectedly registered job losses last month (for …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 17th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: July manufacturing output surprised to the upside, diverging from much weaker survey-based data. We see a similar trend in Europe. The Eurozone: The trade deficit widened more than expected in June as surging energy imports take a toll. Japan: Japan’s equity risk premium is the highest its been …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 16th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The NY Fed’s manufacturing report, the first regional indicator released in August, was shockingly weak. Looking at the housing market, pressure on homebuilders is signaling a sharp slowdown in residential construction. The United Kingdom: The gilt curve has flattened substantially in recent weeks. Energy: European natural gas futures hit …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 15th, 2022
Greetings, China: The PBoC unexpectedly cut two benchmark rates amid softer than expected economic activity. The United States: Job hopping hasn’t been this profitable in decades. Emerging Markets: Here’s last weeks performance for EM ETFs. Commodities: US cotton futures have been surging after the USDA announced that the domestic cotton crop …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 12th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The PPI index unexpectedly declined in July. The PPI (Producer Price Index) measures change in the prices paid to U.S. producers of goods and services. This decline was driven mostly by lower wholesale gasoline prices. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s energy share of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is much …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 11th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, the July CPI report surprised to the downside. The decline in gasoline prices offset most of the gains elsewhere. The probability of a 75 bps Fed rate hike in September dipped back below 50% in response to the softer-than-expected CPI report. Equities: Despite the renewed risk-on sentiment, the …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 10th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: US consumers have shifted spending from goods to experiences. More than half of student loan borrowers made no progress in paying down their student debt since 2019. Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s stocks could come under further pressure as semiconductor demand slumps. In China, earnings have dropped considerably, on par …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 9th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Looking at inflation, lower gasoline prices and, to a lesser extent, food prices sent inflation expectations sharply lower. While this is an important consideration for the Fed, it’s unlikely to deter the central bank from continuing with its tightening policy. The US dollar strength has been putting downward pressure on …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 8th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The employment report topped expectations, with over half a million new payrolls created in July. This does not look like a recession. Rate hike expectations surged in response to the employment report. Here is the probability of a 75 bps hike in September. Canada: The trade surplus hit a …
The Daily Shot Brief – August 5th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, shelter inflation in the US has been surprising to the upside. The United Kingdom: The BoE hiked rates by 50 bps as it forecasts a prolonged recession. The Eurozone: French nuclear power output hit a multi-year low. This could not have come at a worse time. Equities: Responses …
