Greetings, United States: Initial jobless claims remain stubbornly high relative to pre-pandemic levels. Eurozone: The ECB slightly adjusted its forward guidance based on the new strategy. The central bank is now even more dovish, with tapering unlikely to be announced this quarter. The statement language was shorter and more direct. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 22nd, 2021
Greetings, Credit: US aggregate lending standards haven’t been this easy since 2005. Equities: Ivy League endowments continue to boost their US equity exposure. Cryptocurrency: Our friend Elon returned to pump Bitcoin. China: Evergrande’s bond price tumbled below 50c on the dollar as Hong Kong banks pull back financing. Eurozone: …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 21st, 2021
Greetings, United States: Longer-dated market-based inflation expectations have been moderating, … … as the market accepts the “transient” theme. Eurozone: This chart shows the relative importance of service exports by country. Asia-Pacific: Inflation in EM Asia countries appears relatively tame. Fitch Solutions expects inflation rates to recede through the second …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 20th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Consumers increasingly see housing as too expensive, and fewer households are comfortable with the current mortgage rates. Nonetheless, demand remains robust. United Kingdom: This chart shows the UK’s most valuable unicorns. China: Shadow financing has fallen since the 2017 peak as a result of Beijing’s crackdown on …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 19th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The U. Michigan consumer sentiment report showed confidence deteriorating this month. Analysts have attributed this decline to higher prices and the loss of emergency unemployment benefits. Europe: Germany’s two major parties continue to lose support. China: China’s rebalancing toward the private sector continues. Equities: Companies with higher …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 16th, 2021
Greetings, Canada: These charts from Oxford Economics show the growth and composition of households’ excess savings. China: Variant Perception’s China leading indicator has been held up by external factors, even as domestic liquidity data has slowed materially. Emerging Markets: Investment in India’s tech sector hit a new high last quarter, driven by …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 15th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Housing-related online search activity has slowed. Canada: Canada’s central bank upgraded its inflation forecast and tapered QE. The market wasn’t impressed. Some were expecting a more hawkish outcome. Bond yields edged lower. Europe: According to TS Lombard, Italy’s recovery plan is designed to mitigate the legacy of …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 14th, 2021
Greetings, United States: The CPI report surprised to the upside – again. Both the headline and the core inflation measures easily topped forecasts. Emerging Markets: South Africa’s violent protests are putting some pressure on the rand. Equities: Global ex-US earnings typically outperform when world trade is strong. Rates: Expectations for …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 13th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Consumer and business survey data suggest that the unemployment rate should be below 4%. Asia-Pacific: Australia’s business confidence took a hit last month. China: Beijing’s tech crackdown did some damage to public shares’ market cap. Equities: Margin expansion has been strong. Credit: Leveraged loan lender protections …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 12th, 2021
Greetings, United States: Private investment is back to its pre-COVID trend. But the recovery has been uneven, with industrial equipment lagging. United Kingdom: The May GDP estimate surprised to the downside. China: The PBoC cut the reserve requirement rate. Equities: Peak economic momentum does not necessarily mean a peak …
