The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Real consumer spending on services keeps climbing.

But excess savings continue to dwindle, pointing to softer consumption ahead.

The Eurozone: Despite a weak start of the year for the euro, the currency has entered a golden cross. A golden cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major rally. The golden cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average crosses above its long-term moving average.

China: Stocks are surging in Hong Kong.

Commodities: Bloomberg’s broad commodity index is at support.

Equities:  The S&P equal-weight index has been outperforming due to lower exposure to mega-caps and higher exposure to value.

Credit: Banks are sitting on substantial unrealized losses.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at the history of innovation cycles.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The number of states with negative growth is now at the level that signals a recession.

Equities: 2022 saw the largest annual decline for the S&P 500 since 2008.

Back-to-back annual losses are rare, but the odds of the bear market continuing remain elevated, according to MarketDesk Research.

The Eurozone: The sharp decline in the M1 (narrow) money supply growth points to downside risks for business activity.

Asia – Pacific: The pace of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector contraction has softened.

Emerging Markets: EM previously led global equity rallies after recessions.

Global Developments: M&A activity slowed sharply as 2022 progressed.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here is a map showing where yellow or white light is more commonly used:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Home prices declined less than expected in October, with sellers holding the line.

The gap between wages and home prices remains wide.

China: The official PMI report showed business activity contracting faster in December. Employment metrics are deteriorating rapidly

Cryptocurrencies: 2022 was a rough year for cryptos.

Here’s a look at the correlation between cryptos and a few selected assets.

Commodities: Here’s a look at the performance of commodities in 2022.

Equities: Here’s the yearly performance attribution data of the S&P 500.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s the average home size by state.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

Welcome to the Food for Thought Special Edition!

Business: Here are the fastest-growing brands by generation.

Economic Trends: Here are the countries with the highest inflation rates.

Demographic Trends: Here’s a look at fertility rates in advanced economies.

The US fertility rate remains below the replacement level.

Geopolitics: Here’s an update on North Korea’s missile tests.

US Politics: Let’s take a look at views on the Supreme Court.

News: Here are the most salient news events by party.

Happy New Year: A traditional New Year’s celebration.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The 6-month decline in the Conference Board’s leading index has never been this large without a recession.

Equities: Tight liquidity is signaling rapid declines in earnings globally.

Commodities: Computer memory prices are hitting multi-year lows.

The bird flu has led to unprecedented increases in egg prices in the US.

Energy: Pictet expects global oil demand to rise next year, driven by a recovery in Western economies and a reopening in China.

Alternatives: Private equity investors will expect higher investment outperformance relative to public markets.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are favorited Christmas songs:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: According to Redfin, pending home sales are down 33% year-over-year.

The number of apartment units under construction hit a record high.

Equities: It’s not all doom and gloom out there.

Energy: European natural gas prices keep moving lower as temperatures rebound (2nd panel).

Europe: Central/Eastern European economies are heavily reliant on the Eurozone.

Canada: The 2-year yield climbed after the CPI report. Another BoC rate hike ahead?

Asia – Pacific: The China-Australia trade spat is thawing, prompting a climb in the Aussie dollar.

Food for Thought: Here is US employment in the semiconductor industry:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage rates, including jumbo loans, are off the highs.

The Eurozone: How much additional tightening should we expect from the ECB?

Italy’s bond spread to Germany widened after the ECB’s emphasis on quantitative tightening.

Japan: The one-day yen surge was the biggest since 1998 after the BoJ widened the trading band for the 10yr JGB.

Emerging Markets: India-related M&A fees have exceeded China’s.

Energy: Despite higher prices, US energy companies are returning cash to shareholders rather than boosting CapEx.

Equities: No Santa rally this year.

By the way, here is the ARK Innovation ETF overlaid on top of the Nasdaq Composite during the dot-com bubble/crash.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here’s a look at Americans’ top five Christmas movies.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts on the US stock market covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook.

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment came close to the COVID-shock lows this month.

Housing market pain was visible in last month’s retail sales.

Japan: The BoJ shocked the markets by widening the 10-year JGB yield band to 50 bps from 25 bps. The 10yr JGB yield jumped by most in nearly two decades following the monetary tightening.

China: The World Economics SMI report showed an accelerating contraction in China’s business activity this month as confidence slumps.

Equities: Value funds saw substantial inflows last week.

Canada: Canada has more fiscal room than other advanced economies.

Global Developments: Here are year-to-date returns across select asset classes.

Food for Thought: Here are the largest copper producers:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook.

The United States: Manufacturing activity shifted deeper into contraction territory this month as demand plummets

Canada: Housing starts remain well above pre-COVID levels.

Emerging Markets: Economists see a painful onset of stagflation in Chile next year.

Equities: Stocks decoupled from bonds last week as recession worries grow.

S&P 500 earnings are nearly 20% above their long-term trend.

Global Developments: Inflation reports have been surprising to the downside.

Food for Thought: Lastly, let’s take a look at who owns the US stock market.

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The Eurozone: The ECB hiked rates by 50 bps and struck a hawkish tone.

The euro surged on the ECB announcement but then retreated amid global risk-off sentiment.

The United States: The market is now pricing about 130 bps of rate cuts in the second half of next year and the first half of 2024.

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s inflation breached 90% last month.

Economists downgraded India’s FY 2023 GDP, but the nation’s growth is expected to outpace most other countries.

Energy: US gross crude oil exports remain near record levels.

Equities: Stocks tumbled on Thursday in response to the hawkish Fed. The S&P 500 is at the low end of its recent trading range.

Food for Thought: Happy Hanukkah!

Edited by Alexander Bowers

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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