The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Consumer goods imports reached a new high.

Canada: TSX Composite long-term breadth remained in expansion territory.

Cryptocurrency: Most cryptos appear oversold based on the one-week RSI heatmap.

Commodities: Silver has also been rallying.

Equities: Car repair businesses are projected to see a surge in demand as Americans opt to maintain existing vehicles over purchasing new ones. Here is the share price of Driven Brands.

Food for Thought: Lego’s revenue growth:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Equities: Multiple contraction has been the main source of the market’s recent weakness.

Rates: The sharp rise in 5-year call/put skew reflects surging demand for upside exposure as traders hedge against a Fed pivot amid tariff-driven uncertainty. This growing premium underscores the market’s conviction that intermediate Treasuries offer the best risk-reward profile in a volatile macro environment.

The Eurozone: Germany’s DAX has sharply outperformed the S&P 500 this year, on par with its 2015 record.

Asia-Pacific: The 10-year JGB yield hit the highest level since the GFC.

Emerging Markets: EM-ex-China funds experienced significant outflows this month.

Global Developments: The market is no longer pricing any risk premium on the dollar.

The United States: Vehicle and parts orders increased sharply.

Food for Thought: Baggage fee revenue across major US airlines:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: US consumer confidence deteriorated further this month, according to the Conference Board’s survey.

Equities: It’s been a good couple of days for the Magnificent 7 stocks.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s consumer confidence stabilized this month.

The United Kingdom: Economists have been downgrading their estimates for household consumption growth in 2025.

China: The Hang Seng TECH Index is holding support.

Alternatives: Here is a look at payout ratios for some of the largest private equity firms.

Food for Thought: DC job postings vs. the national average:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Commodities: US egg prices have dropped by more than 50% from their peak in recent weeks.

Equities: Companies with high exposure to the US government have widened their outperformance.

Emerging Markets: Turkish authorities have capped USD/TRY at 38. Will it hold?

The United Kingdom: The UK manufacturing sector appears to be in recession as demand crumbles.

Credit: Here is a look at leveraged loan issuance backed by private equity funds.

Global Developments: Military spending is beginning to rise after a prolonged period of decline.

Food for Thought: Betting markets’ odds of US tariff increases:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Consumer spending growth is expected to slow this quarter.

The United Kingdom: Industrial orders remain soft.

China: The stock market rally has paused.

Commodities: Copper futures continue to move higher.

Equities: Investors are becoming increasingly underweight in small caps.

Food for Thought: Share of women scientists and engineers in Europe:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Cost pressures have intensified.

The United Kingdom: Unemployment claims increased in February.

Europe: Eurozone construction output has been rebounding.

Cryptocurrency: The estimated stablecoin share of US national debt has risen in recent years.

Equities: After entering correction territory, the stock market’s trajectory will hinge on whether the US falls into a recession.

Food for Thought: US national park visitor spending and economic impact:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The FOMC revised down its GDP growth forecasts while raising inflation projections.

The market now anticipates 66 bps of rate cuts this year, suggesting the possibility of three reductions.

Equities: So far, Wednesdays have been bullish this year.

The S&P 500 has pulled back from recent highs, but unlike December, breadth has remained more resilient despite price weakness.

Europe: The European Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is significantly lower than its US counterpart.

Emerging Markets: The Turkish lira tumbled this week as hopes for the nation’s democracy were shattered.

Asia-Pacific: New Zealand emerged from a technical recession in Q4.

Food for Thought: Pandemic’s lasting impact reflected in economic and social trends:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Import prices gained more than expected in February.

Canada: The market has scaled back expectations for a BoC rate cut next month.

Japan: The BoJ kept rates unchanged, but the market is still pricing in some 32 bps of hikes this year.

China: Hong Kong-listed stocks continue to outperform their mainland counterparts, driven by tech megacaps.

Commodities: Copper-related equities’ relative performance (vs. broader index) has been lagging copper prices.

Equities: The S&P 500 has seen improving momentum, although there is a lot of overhead resistance.

Food for Thought: Top retirement fears among US workers:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Here is the decomposition of last month’s Retail Sales figure.

Equities: Historically, market corrections have occurred with or without an impending recession.

Credit: HYG put option volume surged this month.

Europe: Investors continue rotating from the US to Europe.

China: Investors are increasingly bullish on China’s economy relative to the US.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index exited “extreme fear” territory over the past few days.

Emerging Markets:  Argentina’s government budget remains in surplus.

Food for Thought: St. Patrick’s Day spending:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Households’ financial situation outlook has fallen to a record low.

US freight demand has been slowing, with transportation stocks underperforming this month.

Equities: Weak investor sentiment is often a bullish indicator.

Here is last week’s performance across sectors.

Europe: European defense stocks are soaring.

China: New home prices fell for the 21st consecutive month in February.

Commodities: After a massive drop from the peak, Bloomberg’s cocoa index is at support.

Food for Thought: Pricing and intelligence of top AI models:

Edited by William Villacis

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