The Daily Shot Brief – October 4th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Despite the manufacturing sector’s relatively small contribution to the (service-focused) US economy, factory earnings make up a significant portion of the total nonfinancial operating profits.   Global Developments: How long do economic expansions last? The analysis below is based on 77 advanced-economy recessions.   China: Despite concerns about a slowdown, …

The Daily Shot Brief – October 2nd, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: The FOMC has consistently been underestimating the pace of declines in the unemployment rate during this cycle.   Global Developments: How have the government debt-to-GDP ratios changed since 2006?   China: The rate of new project approvals suggests increasing fiscal stimulus.   The Eurozone: Has the Fench debt-to-GDP ratio peaked? …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 26th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Below is the Goldman Sachs Current Activity Indicator (CAI) heat map, which continues to show a divergence between “soft” and “hard” economic indicators. We see a similar trend in the Economic Momentum Indicator from Oxford Economics.   Global Developments: Global trade growth indicators continue to deteriorate.   China: Below is …

The Daily Shot Brief – September 25th, 2018

Greetings,   The United States: Worker strikes are on the rise.   Emerging Markets: Regulated items (in which the authorities rather than the market control price changes) have been pushing inflation higher in Mexico. The market-based CPI, however, has been moving lower. The overall core CPI remains within the central bank’s target range.   China: …