The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: US retail sales topped expectations as warm weather boosted spending after weak activity in December. Here is a breakdown:

Industrial production was flat last month, but manufacturing output jumped.

Equities: The stock/bond correlation is negative again.

Should stock investors be concerned about the Fed draining liquidity from the banking system? Stocks have diverged from Fed reserve balances.

The United Kingdom: Sharp declines in mortgage approvals suggest that additional house price weakness is likely to follow. According to PGM Global, roughly 42% of UK mortgages are at variable rates or fixed rates that expire or reset within 24 months.

Emerging Markets: India’s trade deficit narrowed more than expected last month.

Cryptocurrency: Cryptos surged this week.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is vegan-related online search activity:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Housing continues to drive core inflation.

Equities: Stocks have been remarkably resilient in the face of rising bond yields and higher Fed rate hike expectations.

S&P Global’s investment manager survey shows concerns about the market’s near-term performance.

Energy: According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, China’s oil demand will surpass pre-COVID levels this year.

The Eurozone: Euro-area employment growth has been robust.

The United Kingdom: Retail inflation remains very high.

Credit: Roughly 87% of the US investment-grade market is trading below par.

Food for Thought: The ozone layer is healing.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Investors are now less certain about an impending recession.

Asia’s reopening has been a good source of disinflation in the US.

Equities: Leading indicators continue to signal weaker earnings growth ahead.

Commodities: Gold’s performance is in line with previous US recessionary environments.

The Eurozone: Economists no longer see a recession in the Eurozone.

The United Kingdom:  The FTSE 100 is about to breach 8k for the first time.

Japan: The Q4 GDP growth was weaker than expected.

Food for Thought: To conclude, here are the most commonly desired Valentine’s Day gifts:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The indicator of current financial conditions (vs. a year ago) bounced from the lows this year.

Equities: Deutsche Bank’s positioning indicator has been nearing its midpoint level.

The recent equity market rally has eliminated the excess risk premium over bonds.

Credit: Inflows into investment-grade bonds have been slowing.

Equities: The TD Ameritrade retail positioning index remained depressed in January.

China:The broad money supply expansion accelerated.

Food for Thought: Executives swearing on earnings calls:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Continuing unemployment claims have been edging higher.

Next, we have tech layoffs as a percentage of each company’s workforce.

The Eurozone:German inflation continued to ease in January.

Equities: Analysts’ 2023 S&P 500 earnings forecasts are down 11% from the peak. More downgrades ahead?

Cryptocurrency:Bitcoin was down almost 5% on Thursday.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury auction showed robust demand, with dealers taking down the smallest share of notes on record. That indicates demand from a broad array of investors.

China: Chinese stocks have rallied alongside improving earnings momentum and inflows.

Food for Thought: Consumption of financial advice:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: In the housing market, inventories of construction materials are piling up. Here is the wholesale inventories-to-sales ratio.

Business investment faces substantial headwinds. Here are capital goods orders vs. the ISM Manufacturing PMI new orders index.

The United Kingdom: The UK housing market continues to struggle.

Equities: Short-dated options volume is holding at record levels.

Credit: Investment-grade bond ETFs saw large inflows in January, alongside intermediate and long-duration government bonds.

Emerging Markets: Is there more downside risk for Indian equities?

Australia: Following this week’s rate hike and hawkish comments, the market sees the RBA taking the cash rate above 4% at the July meeting.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is the religious makeup of the US Congress:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The market has sharply repriced the fed funds rate trajectory over the past few days.

Equities: Despite slowing inflation, companies that benefit form higher prices have been outperforming.

The Eurozone: French current account deficit hit a record high, driven by deep trade deficit.

The United Kingdom: UK large caps are trading near record highs.

Commodities: This chart shows the evolution of gold production by country.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield held support at 3.3% and returned above its 50-day moving average. Resistance is around 4%.

Global Developments:Here is a look at monetary overhangs in the US, the Eurozone, and the UK.

Food for Thought: A rebound in mall visits?

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The GDP impact of tightening financial conditions (which peaked in mid-2022) should ease this year.

Equities: Here are year-to-date US equity fund flows by fund group.

The Eurozone: Euro-area financial stocks are improving in absolute and relative terms.

Japan: Nominal wages surged in December.

Europe: The Swedish krona has been under pressure (chart shows EUR gaining against SEK).

Rates: Foreign demand for US Treasuries strengthened in December.

Energy: The copper price has sharply diverged from the Brent oil price.

Food for Thought: Here is the Chinese spy balloon’s path across North America:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: With over half a million jobs created, the January jobs report far surpassed economists’ expectations. Job gains were broad:

The jobs report shocker boosted rate hike expectations, with the terminal rate back above 5%.

Equities: The NYSE New Highs/New Lows indicator reached its best reading since 2021.

Global Developments: How did the manufacturing PMIs change over the past month?

Emerging Markets: Here are last week’s EM 10yr government bond yield changes.

Energy: The US oil rig count dipped back below 600 last week.

Europe: EU renewable solar and wind power production overtook natural gas.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the top pizza chains:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Employment growth has slowed the most in cycle-sensitive sectors.

Unit labor costs increased less than expected last quarter.

The United Kingdom: The BoE hiked rates by 50 bps, …

… amid elevated inflation and wage growth.

Equities:Tech shares drove outperformance in several sectors over the past few days.

The Eurozone:More rate hikes are coming.

Commodities: The inverse correlation between gold and US real yields has weakened.

Food for Thought: Pedestrian deaths:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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