Greetings, Equities: After entering correction territory, the S&P 500 rebounded on Monday to finish up on the day. But futures are again heavy this morning. The risk of conflict in Eastern Europe continues to weigh on the market Credit: It’s been a tough start of the year for munis. Cryptocurrency: The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 25th, 2022”
Greetings, Equities: It was a rough week for stocks globally. The number of Nasdaq stocks hitting 52-week lows surged. Rates: The US Treasury’s cash balances at the Fed have rebounded sharply after the debt ceiling was lifted. That’s pulling deposits out of the private sector. As a result, bank reserves declined sharply in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 24th, 2022”
Greetings, Equities: The Dow and the Nasdaq 100 dipped below the 200-day moving average. The selloff in small caps continued. Here is the 10-year relative performance. Rates: Treasury yield increases were been driven by real rates this month. Commodities: Fund managers are very long commodities. China: Economists continue to downgrade their …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 21st, 2022”
Greetings, Equities: The Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory as investors dumped “long-duration” equities. High-multiple growth equities continue to be driven by real rates. Here is the post-IPO portfolio’s correlation with inflation-linked Treasuries. Cryptocurrency: Crypto-focused stocks have been selling off with bitcoin. China: The renminbi is grinding higher vs. USD amid strong exports …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 20th, 2022”
Greetings, Equities: Rising real yields continue to pressure stocks. Credit: Investment-grade corporate debt duration has been rising over the past couple of decades, making the market more vulnerable to rate increases. Large US corporate bankruptcies are increasingly filed in Houston courts. Rates: The Treasury curve continues to flatten at the longer …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 19th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: The 2-year Treasury yield broke above 1% as the market prices in faster rate hikes ahead. A 1% increase this year is now fully priced in. Canada: Will we see a BoC hike next week? The market is pricing in a 70%+ probability of such an outcome. The …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 18th, 2022”
Greetings, Equities: Market sentiment has been shifting toward more neutral levels as Fed rate hikes loom. The equity market froth we saw last year has come off. The AAII bull-bear spread is holding in negative territory. Here is Goldman’s sentiment indicator. Credit: US high-yield spreads are near the lowest levels since 2007. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 17th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: US state and local tax receipts have been going to benefit payments rather than investment. Asia-Pacific: Australia’s housing credit growth remains exceptionally strong. Home prices continue to climb. China: Country Garden is an investment-grade builder in China. Even some companies that are not excessively leveraged are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 14th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: Economists see inflation peaking within a month or two but staying elevated for some time. What factors are driving businesses to boost prices? China: This chart shows China’s system-wide leverage. Emerging Markets: The betting markets see Lula winning this year’s election in Brazil. Energy: We …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 13th, 2022”
Greetings, United States: Some 1.7 million Americans were not at work due to illness in December. Eurozone: High-frequency data point to downside risks for Germany’s consumer spending. China: China needs stability in Kazakhstan. Equities: How do higher yields and policy tightening impact different sectors? Global Developments: The share …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 12th, 2022”
