The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The GDP report topped expectations, signaling robust economic growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was much closer to the Q2 figure than the consensus forecast (see chart).

Europe: This chart shows road freight transport between EU and non-EU countries.

China: Hedge funds have been cutting their exposure.

Cryptocurrency: Here is a look at Bitcoin mining energy sources versus global electricity.

Equities: Firms recognized for their frequent share buy-back initiatives have been underperforming.

Credit: US commercial property prices continue to decline, with office properties bearing the brunt of this downward trend.

Food for Thought: Gen-Z’s and Millennials’ industry preferences:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The gap between houses sold and those under construction is narrowing.

Equities: The recent market action does not look like a bear-market rally.

Credit: Prime money market funds experience inflows during rate hike cycles, while government funds face outflows. However, in March of this year, government money market funds became a haven for depositors.

The Eurozone: Loan growth continues to slow in the Eurozone.

Commodities: Cocoa prices are surging due to concerns about future production amid tight inventories.

Global Developments: Retail sales have generally been weak in developed markets outside of the US over the past year.

Food for Thought: Here is tipping in the US – Americans vs. foreigners:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: Robust employment and stock market gains contributed to improving mood. Here are the contributions to the Conference Board’s index.

The United Kingdom
: Gains in selling prices have been moderating.

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s GDP growth has slowed, although sequential gains in services offset declines in manufacturing.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is back below $30k and testing support at the 50-day moving average.

Commodities: US cotton futures have been surging due to dry conditions for the Southern Plains and Delta regions.

Equities: Stocks benefiting from AI advances continue to outperform.

Food for Thought: US pedestrian deaths:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

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The United States: The services PMI index from S&P Global declined in July but remained in growth territory (PMI > 50). Business outlook and hiring softened.

Labor market imbalances continue to ease as job openings moderate.

Equities: The S&P 500 PE ratio has diverged from real yields.

This is the first US non-revolving debt contraction in 12 years, underpinned by tighter lending standards.

The United Kingdom: The US-UK 10-year spread is tightening.

The Eurozone: The euro-area composite PMI shows shrinking business activity.

Commodities: Orange juice futures hit a record high.

Food for Thought: Here are weekend box office gross proceeds:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States: The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates this week, but the probability of further increases remains relatively low. Most economists see the July increase as the end of the hiking cycle.

The United Kingdom: Consumer confidence deteriorated in July.

Asia-Pacific: Australia’s manufacturing activity has stabilized, but services are now in contraction territory.

Commodities: Rice prices have been surging.

Equities: Options activity shows rising optimism.

Rates: The US real yield curve is increasingly inverted as short-term inflation expectations ease.

Food for Thought: Emigrating millionaires:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Last week’s initial jobless claims were below expectations.

However, there are some concerns about the veracity of the claims data.

The Eurozone: Consumer confidence continues to rebound.

Energy: Energy shares have been rebounding.

Equities: Hedge funds have been short-covering.

Credit: Commercial property prices are headed lower.

Global Developments: Inflation indicators continue to surprise to the downside.

Food for Thought: A large drop in crypto crime in 2023:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The number of single-family housing units under construction continues to fall.

Equities: The Nasdaq is lagging the average bear-market recovery.

Credit: Investment-grade portfolio managers have reduced their cash positions.

The United Kingdom: Economists see the UK’s core inflation slowing rapidly from here. Below is a forecast from TS Lombard (monthly changes).

China: Beijing is getting aggressive in pushing China’s currency higher

Emerging Markets: Here is the iShares Thailand equity ETF. The market wants to see the status quo.

Commodities: The wheat market is finally responding to the Ukraine situation.

Food for Thought: New shipping routes opening as Arctic ice melts:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Industrial production declined again last month as manufacturing output contracted.

The Eurozone:  A built-in wage-price spiral?

Commodities: Anticipating drier and hotter conditions in the Midwest for the remainder of the month, corn futures are experiencing a rebound.

Equities: Fund managers view “long big tech” as the most crowded trade.

Credit: This chart shows credit card delinquency rates at small banks.

Food for Thought: US presidential race fundraising:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The stock market continues to signal a rebound in US manufacturing activity.

The drop in federal government receipts looks recessionary.

Equities:  According to BofA’s fund manager survey, the disparity in sentiment between institutional and retail investors has reached unprecedented levels.

This chart illustrates this year’s improvement in breadth.

The Eurozone:  The gap between the euro-area and US economic surprises hit extreme levels.

Commodities: US pork belly prices are surging.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is testing support at 30k.

Food for Thought: Here are groups for which prescribed medications were considered too expensive to take:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The US is importing some disinflation from China.

Economic surprises have been positive for hard data, while soft data (surveys) has been lagging.

Equities: Intraday volatility has been moving lower.

The Eurozone: The ECB’s policy transmission has been less effective than in previous cycles as banks keep deposit rates depressed.

Japan: The BoJ’s JGB holdings declined sharply over the past month.

Commodities: Industrial commodities got a boost from the US dollar weakness last week.

Food for Thought: The luxury watch market (a classic bubble):

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief