Greetings, The United States: First on consumer spending, real card spending growth is now negative. Canada: The May CPI report topped expectations – again. Here is the headline CPI: Europe: The Czech central bank hiked its benchmark rate by 125bps to 7%. The market expects a recession, with the yield curve deeply inverted. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 22nd, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Starting with the housing market, existing home sales are down 9% from a year ago. Next, let’s look at the vehicle affordability index. How many weeks of income does it take to purchase a new vehicle? Asia-Pacific: New Zealand’s exports hit a record high. Commodities: Copper remains under …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 21st, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, the World Economics SMI report indicates that US business activity is already in contraction mode (SMI < 50). It appears that companies are now shedding jobs (lower left panel). West Coast port delays continue to ease as inventories surge from slowing demand. The Eurozone: The recent …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 20th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Wealth destruction has been massive in this cycle, which is likely to create a drag on consumption. China: Housing starts and property transactions have reached extreme lows. Are we near the bottom? Cryptocurrency: There was some panic selling over the weekend. Bitcoin dipped below $18k but rebounded to …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 17th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Manufacturing activity at the national level is probably in contraction mode. Also, it’s only a matter of time before unemployment applications start picking up as labor demand slows. China: Lockdowns have resulted in a fiscal shock. Cryptocurrency: Retail investors have been providing liquidity to institutions dumping crypto-linked stocks …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 16th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Following the 75 bps rate hike Wednesday, the FOMC downgraded its GDP projections and boosted the forecasts for unemployment. The collateral damage from this inflation battle is now expected to be more severe, narrowing the path to a “soft landing.” The terminal rate expectations are back below 4%. …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 15th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The small business outlook for general business conditions hit a record low in May Faced with a recession (as the chart above suggests), companies should, in theory, curtail hiring. Instead, hiring plans picked up in May. Perhaps the situation is not as dire as sentiment suggests. China: Economic activity …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 14th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, the Treasury curve inverted as short-term yields continued to soar on Monday. The market has massively repriced Fed rate hike probabilities amid concerns that inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. The probability of a 75 bps rate increase this week is suddenly almost a certainty, and the odds …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 13th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The CPI report surprised to the upside again. The headline CPI index re-accelerated to hit a multi-decade high. While goods inflation is easing, food, energy, and core services CPI sped up last month. Also, the biggest problem for the Fed may not even be the CPI surprise. Instead, it could …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 10th, 2022
Greetings, The Eurozone: First, the ECB struck a hawkish tone, confirming the start of its first rate-hiking cycle since 2011. The July rate increase is now expected to be 25 bps (a more cautious start). The market now expects the ECB to deliver nearly 150 bps worth of hikes by the end of …
