The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Fewer resignations signal a sharp decline in wage growth.

The one-year consumer inflation expectations from the NY Fed’s latest survey edged higher last month, but the three-year index declined.

China: Are investors too gloomy on China?

Equities: Companies with exposure to the US government have underperformed recently.

Japan:  The yen strengthened this week as the BoJ signaled tighter policy ahead.

Emerging Markets: Mexico’s policy rate differential with the US is expected to tighten.

Commodities: Commodity prices have risen despite the strengthening of the US dollar.

Food for Thought: Here are US domestic terrorism-related incidents involving known offenders:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Household net worth hit a record high last quarter, boosted by stocks and house prices.

China: Beijing says “do not bet” against the renminbi, leading the currency to jump in response to the warning.

Credit: Companies are borrowing at a record pace.

Equities: Market breadth worsened in recent weeks as most stocks widened their underperformance vs. the S&P 500.

Here is the equal-weight index…

and here are small caps.

Emerging Markets: Chile’s CPI surprised to the downside, sending the peso sharply lower on expectations of faster rate cuts.

Food for Thought: Office space construction vs. demolitions:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Inflation is following the pattern we saw in previous spikes.

Europe: The Polish zloty tumbled after the central bank’s decisive rate cut.

Emerging Markets: Economists continue to boost their forecasts for India’s business investment.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a mixed week for cryptos, with BTC in the lead and Litecoin (LTC) underperforming top peers.

Commodities: Chicago cattle futures hit a record high amid growing demand for beef.

Equities: Equity sentiment is normalizing from bullish extremes

Food for Thought: Overqualified workers in advanced economies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM PMI report showed a sudden acceleration in cost inflation, which we saw in the regional Fed data.

Equities: Stock-bond correlations remain elevated.

Rates: The US neutral real policy rate, or R-star, remains very low. MRB Partners expects the Fed to upgrade its median estimate of R-star, and the future policy rate path will follow a much higher trajectory. (2 charts)

The Eurozone: Germany’s factory orders tumbled in July.

Europe: Poland’s central bank delivered an aggressive rate cut (the market expected a 25 bps reduction).

Commodities: Copper prices have declined this year despite higher demand, which was probably due to the green energy transition and scrap production.

Food for Thought: This summer was the hottest on record:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: All signs point to a retreat in consumption in the months ahead.

• • Shrinking excess savings:

• • The resumption of student loan payments:

The Eurozone: The final services PMI report for August was even worse than the flash figure.

Japan: Households cut back on spending as inflation takes a toll.

Emerging Markets: EM debt funds keep seeing outflows.

Commodities: Rice futures keep climbing.

Equities: Analysts continue to upgrade earnings estimates.

Food for Thought: Debt-to-income ratios:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Hiring remained robust in August, but the labor market continues to soften.

The jobs report reinforces the view that the Fed is likely done with rate hikes.

Equities: Softer retail ETF demand was more about fixed income than equities.

The United Kingdom: Home price declines haven’t been this severe since the GFC.

Asia-Pacific: The Aussie dollar is sharply lower after the RBA left rates unchanged again.

Emerging Markets: Here is a look at LatAm policy rate forecasts.

Global Developments: Global factory activity remains in contraction mode.

Food for Thought: Here are US maternal mortality rates:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Most sectors registered an increase in consumption (2 charts).

The Eurozone: French inflation accelerated in August, boosted by higher energy prices.

Japan: Japanese stocks continue to outperform Asian peers.

Commodities: Here is last month’s performance across key commodity markets.

Equities: Retail investors were unprepared for the market rebound.

Credit: Here is last month’s performance across credit asset classes.

Food for Thought: Music popularity by genre:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ADP private payrolls report for August came in well below expectations. Although this metric isn’t a reliable forecaster of the official employment report, it suggests a potential slowdown in the job market.

Global Developments: September tends to be a good month for the US dollar.

Equities: The S&P 500 valuations continue to diverge from that of the equal-weight index.

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals declined more than expected last month.

Commodities: Orange juice futures hit a record high amid low supplies.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index flipped back into “neutral” territory after reaching “fear” levels last week. News of Grayscale’s court victory versus the SEC boosted investor optimism.

Food for Thought: The fast food app market:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The July job openings print came in below forecasts, suggesting that the job market continues to loosen.

The Eurozone: Germany’s real wage growth is back above zero.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto assets saw some outflows in recent days.

China: This chart displays the cumulative construction starts for 2023 in comparison to the trends observed from 2010 onwards.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s economic confidence is deteriorating.

Equities: The S&P 500 cleared its 50-day moving average.

Food for Thought: Legal status of sports betting:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey shows that businesses boosted wages this month.

Equities: September tends to be the worst month for US stocks.

Rates: The Treasury curve undergoes a bull steepener when the unemployment rate starts rising.

China: Economists continue to lower their projections for China’s GDP growth.

Emerging Markets: Hedge funds have been boosting their bets on EM equities.

Commodities: Platinum has been rebounding, widening its outperformance over palladium.

Food for Thought: Canada’s 2023 wildfire emissions in perspective:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief