Greetings, The United States: To start off, the June CPI report delivered another shocker, with price gains exceeding most forecasts. Here is the attribution chart for the year-over-year figures. The terminal rate climbed back above 3.5% as the market priced in a significant probability of a 100 bps Fed rate hike this month. …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 13th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: Inflation is increasingly demand-driven, according to Deutsche Bank. Since demand can be subdued with a tighter monetary policy, this trend should encourage the Fed to keep raising rates. Emerging Markets: The Chilean peso is crashing with copper. The Colombian peso is under pressure as well, hurt by the political situation …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 12th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, the yield curve inversion hit the worst level since 2006. Looking at the labor market, the NY Fed’s national survey signals increasing concerns about employment, especially among Americans with a college degree. The Eurozone: Chinese demand for Eurozone goods has waned at the same time Eurozone import …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 11th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The June payrolls report surprised to the upside, nearing full recovery. This jobs report sealed a 75 bps Fed rate hike this month. Japan: The yen hit a 24-year low vs. USD. The ruling coalition’s election gains suggest that the accommodative monetary policy is here to stay. China: …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 8th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, layoffs have picked up, but most workers are finding jobs quickly as the job market remains tight. The United Kingdom: The pound strengthened substantially vs. the euro after the news of Boris Johnson’s resignation. The Eurozone: HSBC expects inflation in France to ease as the government prevents …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 7th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, Treasury yields jumped following the hawkish FOMC minutes. The yield curve moved deeper into inversion. Market-based inflation expectations keep drifting lower with oil. The United Kingdom: The misery index is nearing the post-2008 peak. China: Developer fundraising in bond markets is starting to pick up. Emerging …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 6th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The trade-weighted US dollar index hit the highest level in nearly two decades. Japan: Japan is now entangled in natural gas supply risk. The public is more upbeat about nuclear energy. Commodities: The Bloomberg Commodities Index corrected last month, although it has rarely produced such a positive return during the …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 5th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: First, employment and new orders are now a drag on the ISM PMI index. According to the report, US manufacturing growth slowed in June but held in positive territory. Treasury yields declined sharply over the past couple of weeks as recession fears mount. Canada: The corporate interest coverage ratio remains …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 1st, 2022
Greetings, The United States: The market no longer expects the Fed to take rates above 3.5%. China: Supplier delays are officially over. Russia: Russia’s stock index tumbled as Gazprom stopped dividend payments for the first time since 1998. Commodities: Energy and metals have diverged. Equities: A repeat of 1973? Interesting correlation …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 30th, 2022
Greetings, The United States: To begin, mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped sharply last week and are now down 24% vs. last year. Tight financial conditions will substantially boost recession risks by mid-2023 according to Deutsche Bank. The Eurozone: Spain’s inflation continues to surge, hitting 10% this month. China: Diverging monetary policy …
