The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Challenges facing New York Community Bancorp have reignited worries about the stability of smaller regional banks.

Credit: In addition to worries about office debt exposure at US small/regional banks, investors see potential issues with underwater bond portfolios.

Europe: Based on current earnings yields, European stocks are very attractive relative to the US.

Commodities: Gold demand growth in the OTC market was very strong last year.

China: Beijing is taking measures to tackle the risks in China’s rural banking sector, characterized by high nonperforming loan ratios.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin gave up most of its early-January gains, while Bitcoin Cash (BCH) lagged behind major cryptos.

Food for Thought: Digital services exports:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: December saw another increase in job openings, surpassing expectations and underscoring the labor market’s ongoing resilience.

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals were softer than expected last month.

Europe: Sweden’s economic sentiment (business and consumer) jumped this month.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s manufacturing output continues to trend higher.

Equities: The US market remains highly concentrated.

Credit: Loans held by multiple BDCs may not be marked at the same level.

Food for Thought: The rise of autocracies:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

Equities: What happens to stock prices after the yield curve “un-inverts”?

The United States: Consumers continue to save less than they did prior to the pandemic (relative to their disposable incomes). The rate has been trending lower since last spring.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw significant outflows last week, mostly driven by incumbent bitcoin ETF issuer Grayscale.

Rates: The average real Fed funds rate at the first rate cut is 3% (median 2.8%). In this cycle, the real rate could exceed the historical average if inflation continues to decline.

The Eurozone: Falling inflation and soft economic activity point to ECB rate cuts, which could arrive sooner than the market expects.

Global Developments: The recent rise in global supply chain bottlenecks could slow the decline in inflation.

Food for Thought: The US federal budget:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The December core PCE inflation measure was in line with forecasts. The year-over-year indicator dipped below 3% (2nd panel below).

China: The money supply is growing at roughly twice the rate of nominal GDP.

Commodities: Here is a look at last week’s performance

Energy: Crude oil backwardation strengthened amid tensions in the Middle East.

Equities: Here is a look at last week’s performance by sector.

Food for Thought: Apple’s sales by product category:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The Conference Board’s US leading index experienced another decline last month, albeit a smaller decrease than anticipated.

The index has never experienced such a large 6-month decline without a recession.

The Eurozone: What should we expect from the ECB this week? Here are some scenarios, including market impact (from ING).

Energy: Oil prices climbed amid Middle East tensions on Monday, with Brent now firmly above its 50-day moving average.

Equities: The Dow climbed above 38k for the first time.

With short-term rates above 5%, using in-the-money stock options for interest rate arb is popular again.

Global Developments: Container ship capacity is expected to surge this year.

Food for Thought: Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The U. Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped this month, boosted by stock market gains, firmer home prices, and a robust job market.

The United Kingdom: The December retail sales report was awful.

China: China’s currency has significantly underperformed the MSCI’s broad EM currency index.

Equities: The equal weight index has widened its underperformance.

Rates: BNP Paribas reports that hedge fund basis trades (futures versus cash Treasuries) are likely at an all-time high.

Commodities: Here is a look at last week’s performance across key commodity markets.

Food for Thought: US retail workers by industry:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Market-based probability of a March Fed rate cut continues to ease.

The Eurozone: Construction output was down sharply on a year-over-year basis in November.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 hit a record high.

Energy: US crude oil stockpiles declined last week.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield is at its 50-day moving average.

Food for Thought: Renting vs. owning:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment improved again this month.

The Eurozone: European net equity issuance plunged last year.

Equities: Market breadth started deteriorating in recent days, …

… after bond yields bottomed.

Credit:  Investment-grade bond funds have been seeing robust inflows.

Commodities: How correlated are different commodity markets to the S&P 500 and the US dollar?

Australia: Full-time employment unexpectedly tumbled last month.

Food for Thought: Streaming subscriptions:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: According to CivicScience, “consumers ended 2023 feeling increasingly optimistic about the short-term future of their overall financial health.”

The United Kingdom: Economists downgraded their forecasts for this year’s inflation rate.

China: Home prices continue to fall.

Commodities: Cocoa futures keep moving higher.

Equities: Investors have capitulated on small caps.

Food for Thought: Tech jobs are spreading out.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Chapter 11 filings may signal a downshift in US economic growth.

Following an initial spike after the payment holiday ended, student loan payments are rapidly trending lower.

China: Household credit has been contracting, …

…. while household deposits continue to rise.

Equities: Lagging stocks in the S&P 500 typically post their best performance around the end of the year.

The S&P 500 hasn’t had a 2% down day in almost a year (225 trading sessions).

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw a near-record spike in inflows last week.

Food for Thought: US household size over time:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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