From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Despite strong retail sales in October, real holiday spending is expected to be down this year for the first time since the GFC. Industrial production edged lower last month, driven by utilities (warmer than usual weather) and softer oil production. The United Kingdom: The headline …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: This year has seen the sharpest rise in borrowing costs during a hiking cycle. Here is the evolution of market pricing for the fed funds rate trajectory. The Eurozone: China’s rebound should be positive for the euro. Emerging Markets: EM stocks are nearing overbought territory. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 16th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: To begin, freight rate inflation continues to ease as demand softens. The U. Michigan consumer survey report shows that selling conditions for homes continue to decline. Equities: Many analysts expect an earnings recession ahead. Which sectors are most vulnerable to earnings revisions? China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 15th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Households see a deterioration in their balance sheets. Retailers’ pricing power continues to weaken as inventories climb. Europe: European shares are in overbought territory. China: Beijing wants the banking system to support property developers. Emerging Markets: It was a challenging week for Brazilian …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Outside of shelter CPI, a number of items signaled slower inflation in October (shown on a month-over-month basis). Here is Core CPI excluding shelter. The terminal rate dipped below 5%. Here is the market expectation for the fed funds rate trajectory. China: Stocks surged …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 11th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: To begin, the deterioration of housing affordability over the last twelve months has been exceptionally rapid. The public tends to start noticing inflation when the CPI hits 4-5%. Cryptocurrency: Binance will not acquire FTX after all, which triggered another round of selling in the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 10th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Rising costs put a strain on discretionary demand. The Eurozone: The French trade deficit hit a new record. Germany’s electricity prices have declined massively from the peak but remain elevated. Emerging Markets: Stocks are trading at attractive valuations versus developed markets. Cryptocurrency: Binance agreed …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The Eurozone: To begin, the Eurozone economy is facing a growing list of problems. Below is the breakdown of the euro-area current account balance. The United States: In the housing market, the surge in mortgage rates suggests that home prices will see year-over-year declines at the national …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Oil and gas unemployment is near record lows. Also, prime-age labor force participation declined again, keeping the labor market tight. The Eurozone: The euro surged vs. the dollar on Friday, driven by the US dollar’s weakness. China: The reopening-driven equity rebound continues. But Beijing doesn’t …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 7th, 2022”
From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Jobless claims hit another multi-year low for this time of the year and are firmly below pre-COVID levels. The labor market strength continues to top expectations. The terminal rate, also called the peak fed funds rate, continues to climb as the market expects the Federal Reserve to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 4th, 2022”
