The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: More home sellers are cutting prices.

Europe: Here is a look at the government debt to GDP ratio by EU country in Q4 2024.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s exports slowed sharply in the first ten days of May.

China: Bond yields are higher on the tariff reduction news.

Equities: Goldman’s positioning indicator, deeply in negative territory, suggests there is room for stocks to rally.

Credit: BofA’s private clients have been exiting leveraged finance assets.

Food for Thought: US abortion-ban status by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Initial jobless claims fell back to last year’s levels following the prior week’s NYC-related distortion.

The United Kingdom: Corporate inflation expectations eased last month.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s exports remained robust in April.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin has surged past $100k.

Equities: This chart illustrates cumulative flows into US equity funds since 2007, highlighting a dramatic surge of $1.3 trillion since 2020.

Rates: The percentage of indirect bidders (usually foreign institutions) at this week’s 30-year bond auction hit the lowest level in years.

Food for Thought: Most frequently chosen papal names in history:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Below are some updates on the housing market.

• Mortgage applications increased last week.

Here is the rate lock count.

The United Kingdom: Cooling inflation, especially from a stronger pound, could encourage the BoE to cut rates.

China: FX reserves have been climbing this year.

Energy: US crude oil inventories fell last week, while refined products posted mixed results.

Equities: Retail purchases of stocks and ETFs declined from their April peak, when buy-the-dip enthusiasm had fueled a surge in retail buying amid the tariffs-driven selloff.

Rates: The 10-year Treasury note is entering a seasonally strong period.

Food for Thought: US pharmaceutical imports by country:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: The total US trade deficit reached a record $140.5 billion in March, driven by tariff frontrunning and weaker service exports.

The Eurozone: The slump in Germany’s construction activity is easing.

Asia-Pacific: Taiwan’s FX reserves hit a record high in April amid capital inflows.

India: Here is a look at active military personnel in both countries.

Commodities: CTAs have steadily increased their exposure to gold.

Equities: Here is a look at hedge funds’ trading flows by sector.

Food for Thought: Life evaluation trends in OECD countries with the largest declines:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Both business optimism and capital spending expectations have plunged, marking one of the steepest two-month declines since the pandemic.

The Eurozone: Investor sentiment improved this month.

Asia-Pacific: VC funding for South Korean startups has steadily declined since the 2020s’ peak.

Cryptocurrency: BTC/USD is declining from a key resistance zone.

Commodities: US corn futures are under pressure.

Equities: The S&P 500’s recent trajectory has converged with the historical median for 10% corrections, but the path forward increasingly hinges on recession risk. Historically, markets recover sharply in the absence of a downturn, while recession-linked corrections tend to deepen and persist.

Food for Thought: US imports of movie and TV production services by region:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: The link between inflation and wages has improved after a dormant period since the late 1990s.

The Eurozone: The Bloomberg Economics ECB Sentiment Index (based on natural language processing) remains in dovish territory.

China: The renminbi has been strengthening.

Commodities: Traders are boosting their bets on soybean futures.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 is testing resistance at the 200-day moving average.

Global Developments: The global stock/bond ratio has stabilized after reaching oversold levels.

Food for Thought: US car sales by production origin and automaker:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Cost pressures persist.

The United Kingdom: Consumer credit growth slowed.

Europe: Poland’s inflation is slowing.

Cryptocurrency: Most altcoins have underperformed BTC over the past three months.

Equities: The S&P 500 winning streak continues.

Credit: Investors are returning to corporate high-yield funds.

Food for Thought: Performance scores of top US and Chinese AI models:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: US GDP contracted in the first quarter, driven by a sharp surge in imports ahead of impending tariffs.

Canada: Canada’s GDP unexpectedly declined in February, but projections show a small rebound in March.

Japan: BoJ rate hike expectations tumbled.

Commodities: Gold is off the highs.

Equities: Stock futures are up this morning.

Global Developments: The dollar has declined more than interest rate differentials alone would suggest.

Food for Thought: Daily personal income in 2024 by country for the poorest and richest 10%:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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Greetings,

The United States: Job openings declined further in March, falling short of expectations.

Europe: Here is a look at nuclear energy output across Europe.

The United Kingdom: Home prices unexpectedly declined this month.

Emerging Markets: Thailand’s central bank cut rates again.

Commodities: Retail purchases of gold in Asia surged over the past 12 months.

Equities: US consumers showed a dramatic shift in their outlook on the stock market in April.

Food for Thought: Distribution of CEO pay for S&P 500 firms from 2020 to 2024:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Financial conditions have eased sharply in recent days.

Europe: European momentum factor outperformance stands out compared to other major equity markets.

China: Economic policy uncertainty has risen sharply.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw the largest weekly inflow since mid-December 2024, the third-largest inflow on record.

Commodities: Gold appears overbought.

Equities: It’s been a few months since we saw five consecutive daily gains in the S&P 500.

Food for Thought: Atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1980:

Edited by Abraham Lent

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