The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Companies report that labor shortages are easing.

Europe: Dutch manufacturing production reversed much of the December surge, which was driven by one-off items.

Japan: The stock rally has been fading amid growing expectations for the BoJ tightening policy this spring.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin blasted past $70k, hitting a record high.

Equities: Goldman’s sentiment index is in “stretched” territory.

S&P 500 earnings have outgrown nominal GDP by a large margin over the past decade (partially reflecting US companies’ global operations).

Food for Thought: Shift in political affiliation among US men aged 18-29:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: February’s job gains exceeded expectations, yet the underlying trends in the employment report indicate a softening labor market.

The United Kingdom: The employment PMI signals a contraction in permanent placements and temp agency billings.

China: The PPI remains in negative territory.

Cryptocurrency: There is an active market for Bitcoin call options with strikes near $100k.

Commodities: Traders are boosting their bets on hog futures.

Equities: ETFs that use options strategies have become very popular.

Food for Thought: Smartphone shipments:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The 2-year Treasury yield fell below 4.5% following Chair Powell’s hinting that the Federal Reserve is increasingly confident in the deceleration of inflation trends.

China: Rail travel picked up relative to prior years during the recent holiday season.

Cryptocurrency: Trading volumes in bitcoin and meme tokens surged last week. (2 charts)

Energy: US LNG export capacity is expected to nearly double over the next few years.

Equities: The S&P 500 12-month forward P/E ratio is back above 21x.

Rates: Tighter liquidity will boost short-term rate volatility

Food for Thought: UFO hotspots:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

Credit: New York Community Bancorp’s assets bounced after the news of a capital injection.

Rates: The copper-to-gold ratio suggests that Treasury yields should be lower.

Equities: While share buyback activity remains well below the levels seen last year when excluding Chevron’s massive buyback from the previous year’s data, the current figures align more closely with last year’s trend.

Global Developments: The dollar has been selling off, with the trade-weighted index back at its 50-day moving average.

The United States: Here is the Beveridge curve, suggesting that the labor market is still tight.

The Eurozone: Germany’s trade surplus surged to new highs as exports jumped.

China: So far, raw material prices have not confirmed the rebound in Chinese equities.

Food for Thought: Projected job growth for top 10 occupations:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The ISM Services PMI eased in February, signifying a deceleration in growth.

The United Kingdom: Outlook among UK service firms is increasingly upbeat.

China: There has been an uptick in narrow money supply in January.

Commodities: Steel prices in China have been rolling over.

Energy: Canada’s oil exports are expected to surge following the expansion of the Trans-Mountain pipeline.

Equities: The market saw a healthy pullback on Tuesday as tech shares sold off.

Food for Thought: Working days lost to health conditions:

Edited by Josh  Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: A tighter labor market often acts as a catalyst for enhancing productivity levels.

The Eurozone: Here is a look at the ECB monetary policy transmission relative to previous hiking cycles.

China: Shares are trading at deep discounts to global peers.

Allocators are not rushing into China, preferring India and Japan instead.

Cryptocurrency: Memecoins have been surging as speculative fervor grips the market. This brings back memories of Cabbage Patch Kids, Furbys, Pokemon Cards, and Beanie Babies.

Commodities: Gold is diverging from gold miners.

Credit: New York Community Bancorp assets are getting hit across the capital structure.

Food for Thought: Gaming revenues (US and global):

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: US construction spending declined for the first time in 13 months in January.

Europe: European stocks have been climbing despite higher bond yields.

China: Economists continue to downgrade their forecasts for China’s inflation this year.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin ETFs’ AUM is surging.

Equities: Positioning has been improving.

Credit: New York Community Bancorp’s stock and bonds were hammered again on Friday.

Food for Thought: WFH is here to stay:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

 

The United States: The personal saving rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, registered a slight increase.

The United Kingdom: Is the housing market rebound stalling?

China: The official PMI report showed persistent contraction in China’s manufacturing sector.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds have been seeing record inflows.

Equities: The Nasdaq Composite finally took out the 2021 peak.

Rates: BofA’s clients are selling bills and adding duration.

Food for Thought: Most common types of cancer in the US:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Mortgage applications are holding at multi-year lows as rates climb.

The Eurozone: The euro-area economic surprise index has rebounded, aligning with that of the US.

China: Hong Kong’s exports climbed back to 2021 levels in January.

Japan: The BoJ is starting to prepare the market for rate hikes. The yen and short-term JGB yields jumped in response.

Equities: Here is a look at sector correlations to reserve balances (liquidity banks hold at the Fed).

Commodities: The bearish positioning in grains looks stretched.

Food for Thought: Extreme-weather insurance trends:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Capital goods orders edged higher.

Canada: Hiring has not kept pace with the population surge (some of which was driven by the influx of students).

Japan: The rise in the jobs-to-application ratio suggests the labor market will loosen from here.

Emerging Markets: Mexican exports last month were slightly softer than in January of 2023.

Equities: The current bull market remains below the median trajectory.

Credit: The increase in downgrades could signal more defaults to come. (2 charts)

Food for Thought: Total crypto payments to hackers:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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