The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The market no longer expects two Fed rate cuts this year, with only 31 bps of reductions currently priced in.

Japan: JGB yields continue to surge.

Australia: The monthly CPI report surprised to the upside.

Energy: CTAs are bullish on crude oil.

Equities: The Dow is back at its 50-day moving average.

Rates: Here is a look at rate trajectories across the Fed’s easing cycles.

Food for Thought: Cocaine in wastewater in European cities:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The Eurozone: Implied volatility in the rates markets has been trending lower.

The United States: Estimates for growth in imports and exports have diverged.

The United Kingdom: Retail sales declined more than expected last month.

Equities: The rally is increasingly dominated by tech/growth stocks, with the rest of the market lagging. Here is last week’s performance by sector:

Commodities: There is a growing divergence in the performance of copper mining equities and the spot price.

Emerging Markets: The Vietnamese dong has been under pressure.

Cryptocurrency: Ether open interest surged last week on hopes of a spot-ETF approval. Funding rates also flipped positive from yearly lows, reflecting bullish sentiment.

Food for Thought: Value of investments in pandemic winners in the post-pandemic world:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Export orders are growing faster.

The United Kingdom: Price gains continue to moderate.

Japan: Inflation keeps slowing.

China: The stock market rally is fading.

Emerging Markets: Chile’s central bank slowed the pace of rate cuts to 50 bps.

Equities: NVIDIA vs. Intel:

Food for Thought: Best cities to work in, according to the class of 2024:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Language in the minutes is hawkish, as seen in the broader Fed sentiment index.

The United Kingdom: The UK CPI report topped expectations.

Japan: Manufacturing is back in growth territory.

Emerging Markets: This month, South Africa’s stock market experienced a robust rally, boosted by surging commodity prices.

Commodities: The metals rally is fading.

The dollar has strengthened alongside commodities in recent years.

Global Developments:  Many advanced economies’ central banks are expected to cut rates by similar magnitudes. This is despite varying effective policy tightening, measured by the pass-through of rate hikes to mortgage markets.

Food for Thought: Fertility rates in select economies:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Philly Fed’s index shows that service sector sales continued to expand modestly this month.

The United Kingdom: Industrial orders deteriorated this month.

Europe: Here is a look at the IMF’s forecasts for government debt.

Energy: Brent crude is nearing $82/bbl.

Equities: A number of sell-side analysts are bullish, ..

… but current prices are well above the average year-end forecast.

Food for Thought: The tax burden by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: According to the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker, US wage gains are slowing but remain above pre-COVID levels.

The Eurozone: The market expects the ECB to ease more aggressively this year than the Fed.

Emerging Markets: Chile’s economy posted solid growth last quarter.

Commodities: The global silver market is on course for the fourth straight year of shortages.

Equities: The Russell 2000 breadth has diverged from Treasury yields.

Alternatives: US venture capital valuations are growing at some of the slowest rates seen over the past decade.

Food for Thought: Use of AI in the M&A process:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment declined this month.

The United Kingdom: Economists have upgraded their estimates for UK GDP growth this year.

Emerging Markets: The Chilean peso has been rallying with copper prices (chart shows USD weakening against CLP).

Energy: US natural gas futures are surging.

Equities: Retail investors have been moving in, driving up speculative stocks.

Food for Thought: Quarterly sales of Novo Nordisk’s weight loss drugs:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Philly Fed’s regional manufacturing index experienced a pullback this month as new orders dipped back into contraction territory.

Europe: Container freight costs from Asia are climbing again.

Cryptocurrency: There was an uptick in short liquidations as BTC returned above $63K.

Commodities: Nickel prices continue to rebound.

Equities: The Dow crossed 40k for the first time on Thursday. Here are the contributions to its gains since reaching the 30k level.

Food for Thought: US birth rates by age group and ethnicity:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: After the “benign” CPI report and weak retail sales data, the market fully priced in two Fed rate cuts this year, perhaps in September and December.

Retail sales were weaker than expected last month, with the “core” measures unexpectedly declining. Consumers are becoming more discerning, which should help slow price increases.

The Eurozone: Euro-area GDP bounced in Q1.

Asian-Pacific: The market is no longer concerned about an RBA rate hike this year.

Emerging Markets: Foreign net purchases of EM equities and bonds dropped to the lowest level in six months amid a strengthening dollar.

Equities: Implied volatility indicators continue to sink.

Food for Thought: Aircraft deliveries:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: A higher percentage of firms saw labor costs as the most important problem.

The United Kingdom: The market continues to price two BoE rate cuts this year.

China: The offshore yuan volatility curve has steepened this year.

Equities: The Nasdaq Composite hit a record high.

Commodities: Copper prices hit a record high, breaking five dollars per pound for the first time.

Food for Thought: K-12 firearm incidents:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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