The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator edged lower this month.

Europe: Economists now expect only one Norges Bank rate cut before the end of the year (from 4.5%).

Emerging Markets: Which currencies are most vulnerable to US dollar strength?

Energy: The US and Qatar are driving growth in global LNG supply.

Equities: US companies that focus on onshoring or primarily depend on domestic production have significantly outperformed those that rely on international supply chains or have a substantial international manufacturing footprint.

Food for Thought: Share of renters spending over 40 percent of disposable income on rent in selected countries:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: For the first time, the average economist’s forecast (compiled by Bloomberg) shows less than two full Fed rate cuts by the end of the year.

CapEx spending has been tepid despite high profits.

Europe: Unlike in prior years, the SNB has been avoiding selling the Swiss franc to curb its rapid appreciation, opting to use rate cuts instead. Falling Swiss franc deposits suggest that the SNB is not buying foreign currency.

Emerging Markets: Mexico’s economic activity registered a pullback in April.

Commodities: Traders continue to boost their bets on gold futures.

Equities: The options market assigns a 30% probability of NVIDIA returning to its highs (of around $140) by the end of the year.

Credit: There has been a pickup in news stories mentioning US Chapter 11 bankruptcies.

Food for Thought: Lyme disease cases:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Conference Board’s leading index declined again in May.

The United Kingdom: UK manufacturing PMI was softer than expected this month but held in growth territory.

China: Hong Kong-listed shares have been reversing recent gains.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin dropped below its 50-day moving average.

Commodities: Copper futures continue to decline.

Equities: Tech fund inflows have been massive.

Food for Thought: Status of abortion restrictions in the United States:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Initial jobless claims have been a bit firmer lately.

The United Kingdom: Consumer sentiment has been improving.

China: Foreigners have been selling mainland shares.

Cryptocurrency: There has been a pickup in ETH long liquidations as the crypto pulled back from the $3,983 resistance level.

Commodities: Wheat prices remain under pressure.

Equities: The current bull market has caught up to the average trend.

Food for Thought: US Employee Motivation and Commitment Index:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment continues to deteriorate as construction firms anticipate declines in new home sales in the coming months.

The Eurozone Option traders now demand the largest premium to protect against EUR/USD downside since late-2022.

Europe: The SNB unexpectedly cut rates, sending the Swiss franc and Swiss bond yields lower.

China: The market is increasingly pricing monetary easing in China as the 2-year government bond yield keeps drifting lower.

Energy: US natural gas prices are forecasted to rise in the summer mainly because of relatively flat production and a seasonal increase in demand from the power sector.

Equities: The momentum factor outperformance has been remarkable.

Food for Thought: Carnival’s income statement per passenger:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: US retail sales growth was well below forecasts in May.

Japan: The number of shareholder proposals has increased in recent years.

Commodities: Aluminum has been reversing the recent rally as industrial metals weaken.

Energy: Brent crude is testing resistance at $85/bbl.

Equities: The S&P 500 dividend yield continues to decline.

Food for Thought: Performance of “Tesla killer” EV companies compared to their all-time highs:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Citi Economic Surprise Index is sinking again, driven by “hard data.”

Canada:  Foreign investors pounced on Canadian securities in April buying bonds and stocks/funds.

China: The World Economics SMI report shows China’s service sector growth holding up in June, …

… but manufacturing remains in contraction territory.

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s electronics exports surged last month.

Commodities: The gold/silver ratio has sharply diverged from the gold/platinum ratio.

Food for Thought: History and forecast of ocean-going cruise passengers:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

China: China’s housing market slump is deepening, which is putting pressure on industrial metals. Here are new home prices (month-over-month):

The United States: Real income expectations hit the lowest levels in over a decade.

The Eurozone: French longer-term yields have risen sharply against the German equivalent. Below is the yield curve comparison.

Commodities: Industrial metals are struggling due to China’s worsening property slump.

Equities: The outperformance of US equities relative to the rest of the world has accelerated.

Global Developments: Rate cuts and improving global economic growth have supported risk-on conditions.

Food for Thought: Father’s Day vs. Mother’s Day spending:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Producer prices unexpectedly fell in May, while the core PPI remained unchanged.

Europe: Container shipping costs from Asia keep rising.

Commodities: Speculative gold bets have been rising.

Energy: Crude oil implied volatility continues to trend lower.

Equities: Long-only funds have been rotating into tech stocks, shifting away from nearly all other sectors.

Alternatives: There is a wide dispersion of returns in private equity.

Food for Thought: Versions of US flags used over time:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Here are the market-implied rate changes in the months ahead.

Treasury yields and the dollar declined on the back of the soft CPI report but bounced after the Fed’s dot plot showed only one rate reduction this year.

Equities: This scatterplot shows average returns by S&P 500 sectors in the two weeks following the CPI release.

The Eurozone: The euro bounced following the subdued US CPI report.

China: The renminbi continues to trade weaker than the PBoC’s midpoint setting.

Emerging Markets: The Mexican peso has been facing downward pressure.

Credit: Banks’ exposure to property loans:

Food for Thought: Homeownership rate changes by state since 2014:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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