The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Fewer small businesses plan to increase headcount.

The United Kingdom: London’s economy has been outperforming.

Emerging Markets: Policy easing in Vietnam could fuel economic recovery and possibly benefit stocks.

Commodities: US cattle futures are surging.

Equities: Top five stocks contributed more than 80% of the S&P 500 gains this year.

Food for Thought: What do college seniors see as the most important benefit in their first job?

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Housing starts are almost 23% below last year’s levels in April, but residential construction has been stabilizing.

If the impasse over the debt ceiling is resolved, the possibility of a rate hike in June cannot be ruled out.

Rates: The 5-year breakeven inflation expectations index is now at pre-COVID highs. Will the current level continue to act as support?

Equities: Regional banks surged on Wednesday.

Japan: Foreigners have been jumping into Japanese equities, boosting prices.

Canada: A BoC rate hike this summer looks increasingly likely.

Food for Thought: Here are US box office sales:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: April’s core retail sales topped expectations.

The United Kingdom: Wage growth is still elevated.

Asia-Pacific: Australia’s Q1 wage growth was slightly below forecasts but still elevated.

China: New home prices increased again last month.

Equities: The tech mega-cap surge has been remarkable.

Food for Thought: Lastly, the share of Americans who identify as LGBT:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker declined sharply in April.

Europe: Sweden’s inflation has finally peaked.

Asia-Pacific: Japan’s TOPIX hit a multi-decade high.

China: Industrial production surprised to the downside.

Retail sales were also softer than expected.

Equities: US and European equities no longer offer an attractive yield compared to credit.

Positive earnings surprises haven’t been met with a lot of enthusiasm.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the number of US passports issued over the last 30 years:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Falling grocery prices may help ease inflation expectations in the months ahead.

Buying conditions for homes are near multi-year lows.

The Eurozone: Greek economic activity is rebounding.

Emerging Markets: The lira continues to hit new lows despite the government’s pre-election interventions.

Equities: The current US profit recession is expected to be the longest since 2016.

Rates: Treasury futures positioning gap between asset managers and hedge funds is at a multi-year high.

Food for Thought: SVB’s deposits over time:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Easing labor shortages helped reduce inflation at restaurants and hotels.

The United Kingdom: The market sees a couple of additional rate hikes in this cycle.

Energy: Here is a forecast for the Brent crude price trajectory from Numera Analytics.

Equities: Shares of regional banks continue to sink, deepening underperformance relative to the overall banking sector.

Credit: The US still has too many banks.

Food for Thought: States with the highest interest from home searchers:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Markets saw the “supercore” inflation slowdown as a positive sign.

The 1-month T-bill yield surged well above the rest of the curve as the X-date looms.

Equities: Airline shares have sold off in recent days.

Credit: Bankruptcies are expected to surge.

The Eurozone: The economic surprise differential with the US points to downside risks for the euro.

China: State-owned companies have been outperforming.

Global Developments: Global services activity continues to diverge from manufacturing.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are Bloomberg’s terminal vs. non-terminal revenues:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The NFIB small business sentiment index hit a multi-year low last month.

The United Kingdom: Here is a summary of the local elections.

The Eurozone: Italy’s exports to China surged recently. This is mostly because of demand for a generic liver drug made in Italy that is rumored to prevent COVID-19, according to IIF. (2 charts)

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw the third consecutive week of outflows.

Energy: Largest US energy companies are sitting on a lot of cash.

Equities: The stock-bond correlation is moving deeper into negative territory.

Credit: The Fed has never tested for a rate shock in the CCAR stress tests.

Food for Thought: Valuations of US sports franchises:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Banks continue to tighten lending standards. Here is the percentage of lenders tightening standards on loans to small companies.

Canada: Canada’s banking sector has not experienced the declines in bank deposits seen in the US.

China: Bank shares have been rallying.

Credit: Credit tightening is increasingly discussed on earnings calls.

Equities: How do stocks perform after the Fed’s last hike?

Europe: The Norwegian krone bounced from the lows after the rate hike. Will the rebound be sustained?

Asia – Pacific: Taiwan’s trade surplus surged last month.

Food for Thought: Here are notable trends in US college enrollment rates:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Prime-age labor force participation has been surging, which in theory, should slow wage growth.

The Eurozone: Germany’s factory orders unexpectedly tumbled in March, raising recession concerns.

Asia-Pacific: AUD/USD has not kept up with the rise in industrial metal prices.

Credit: Bank deposits declined further going into April month-end.

Foreign banks’ US dollar deposits saw the largest monthly decline since 2011.

Equities: Hedge fund clients haven’t been this bearish on stocks in at least a decade.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s equities have been under pressure ahead of the elections.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here are the top prescription drugs in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

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