The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Here is Nomura’s estimate for the June core PCE inflation change (based on the CPI and PPI reports).

Japan: Consumer inflation expectations have been rising.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds are seeing inflows.

Commodities: Gold continues to diverge from real rates.

Equities: However, the S&P Global risk appetite index declined.

Credit: Leveraged loan activity surged this year.

Food for Thought: US 2024 presidential election probabilities in the betting markets:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The CPI report surprised to the downside as inflation continued to cool in June, bolstering the case for rate cuts starting in September.

The United Kingdom: The trade deficit narrowed.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is holding below its 200-day moving average.

Energy: Here is a look at US natural gas production.

Equities: The CPI report triggered a rotation from tech mega-caps to other sectors.

Credit: How do BDC portfolio loan yields compare to public market yields?

Food for Thought: States reporting the most burglaries:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage applications remained at multi-year lows last week.

Europe: Norway’s underlying CPI was below forecasts.

Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s central bank left rates unchanged, but there is increasing talk of potential rate cuts.

Emerging Markets: Argentina is officially in recession.

Equities: The market sees strong earnings growth ahead.

Rates: Foreign demand for Treasuries has been robust.

Food for Thought: US industries with the highest and lowest divorce rates:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Small business payroll gains have gradually eased, creating a wide gap with rent payment growth, according to BofA client data.

The United Kingdom: Hedge funds have been boosting their bets on the pound.

Commodities: Cocoa demand is slowing after massive price increases this year.

Equities: The S&P 500 has diverged from market breadth, as measured by the advance-decline line.

Global Developments: The chart below shows the daily transit trade volume through the Cape of Good Hope and the Suez Canal.

Food for Thought: Median income by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Bloomberg’s US economic surprise index remains near the lowest levels since 2015.

China:  Tax revenue from individuals and corporations remains weak.

Commodities: Corn and soybean futures have been under pressure.

Equities: The options implied probability of a 10% correction in the S&P 500 by late September is less than 8%. That’s good news for those who want to buy some downside protection.

Credit: Large US banks accumulated a growing amount of commercial real estate (CRE) in off-balance sheet exposure, including many loans to REITs.

Food for Thought: Global data centers’ electricity use:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Job openings per unemployed person held at pre-pandemic levels.

The Eurozone: The unemployment rate remains at record lows.

China: The renminbi continues to weaken.

Commodities: Speculative accounts continue to boost their bets on gold.

Equities: The percentage of S&P 500 members beating the index is extraordinarily low.

Food for Thought: AI-powered smartphone shipments and market share growth:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: The Treasury curve has been steepening in recent days due to resurfacing concerns about the US fiscal outlook.

The Eurozone: The ECB is on pause this month but is expected to cut rates again in September and December.

Japan: What is the options-implied probability of USD/JPY breaching 170 in 3 and 6 months?

Equities: The divergence between index prices and breadth could be signaling a pullback.

Credit: Coupons paid to CLO investors continue to dwindle – a possible result of the surge in new issuance over the past quarter.

Global Developments: What percentage of central banks will be in easing mode by the end of the year?

Food for Thought: Reported incidents and hazards from generative AI:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The Eurozone: Let’s begin with the French elections.

The euro moved higher.

China: The PMI index from S&P Global shows robust growth in factory activity.

But the official PMI measure remains in contraction.

Commodities: Most commodities are in a bear market, which typically precedes a period of weakness in the broad index.

Credit: Demand for leveraged loans remains robust.

Global Developments: Here is currency performance data for June and year-to-date.

Food for Thought: Actions taken by adjustable-rate mortgage holders after the fixed-rate period ends:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Durable goods orders surprised to the downside in May, with capital goods purchases being particularly weak.

The United Kingdom: The Q1 GDP growth was revised higher.

Europe: Riksbank held rates unchanged but expects two or three cuts later this year.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough month for cryptos, with Bitcoin Cash underperforming and Ether posting a slightly lower decline versus top peers.

Commodities: Historically, copper prices have declined alongside peaks in Chinese equities.

Equities: How have different S&P 500 sectors performed under the past three administrations?

Food for Thought: Labor force participation among Americans aged 65 and older:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Mortgage applications softened last week, now running more than 40 % below levels seen in recent years.

The United Kingdom: Retail sales unexpectedly declined this month.

Japan: Dollar-yen is trading above 160 despite diverging for the rate differential with the US.

Energy: China’s weak credit expansion has been a headwind for crude oil demand.

Credit: Leveraged loan repricing surged this year.

Rates: Flows into TLT (long-duration Treasury ETF) surged this week.

Food for Thought: Production and prices of ice cream in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

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