The Daily Shot® Brief

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Here’s a brief podcast based on Friday’s Daily Shot, created using Google’s AI. We’d love to hear your feedback.

The United States: Vehicle prices increased slightly in September.

Europe: Household consumption:

Cryptocurrency: It has been a mixed week for cryptos with BTC and LTC underperforming and XRP outperforming top peers.

Commodities: Coffee is holding short-term support within a strong uptrend.

Equities: Retail investors are increasingly bullish.

Food for Thought: The most searched forms of contraception:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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The United States: Housing inventories continue to climb.

Equities: The S&P 500’s 12-month forward P/E ratio is approaching 22x, widening the gap with the average valuation of its constituent members.

S&P 500 implied volatility has been significantly higher than realized volatility due to the upcoming earnings season and elections.

China: Historically, equity rallies have been more durable following fiscal stimulus announcements vs. monetary easing.

Global Developments: Inflation volatility has advanced in recent years and could stay elevated.

Energy: U.S. crude oil inventories jumped last week, while refined product stockpiles, particularly gasoline, saw steep declines.

Food for Thought: Most popular job searches in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Businesses have been reducing inventories.

The United Kingdom: The gilt-bund spread has been widening due to increasing concerns about the UK’s fiscal situation.

Europe: Sweden’s core inflation dropped to 2%.

Energy: Crude oil registered a pullback on Tuesday.

Equities: The market is a bit queasy about the US government’s efforts to break up Google.

Food for Thought: Shifting opinions on banning TikTok among users and non-users:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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China: The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is having its best couple of weeks on record.

Commodities: Industrial commodities declined this morning as the market was disappointed by the absence of additional stimulus measures from China. Here is copper:

Emerging Markets: Chile copper exports have been surging.

The United States: It is unusual to see a strong payrolls report as the Fed starts easing rates.

Equities: The Fed’s quantitative tightening, which is reducing reserve balances, is a headwind for stocks.

Rates: There has been an increase in fails in 20-year Treasuries, driven by reduced relative supply.

Food for Thought: Agricultural yields for cattle and sheep across selected economies:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: September job gains exceeded expectations, indicating that US economic activity remains strong.

The United Kingdom: Employment indicators remain in contraction territory.

Commodities: Gold is pricing in deep Fed rate cuts.

Equities: The S&P 500 equal-weighted index triggered a bullish upswing in momentum.

Rates: The Fed’s emergency programs’ balances have been trending lower.

Food for Thought: US voter turnout is expected to reach record levels in 2024.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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The United States: US factory orders unexpectedly declined in August.

The United Kingdom: Business inflation expectations were higher than expected in September.

China: Domestic investors are rotating from money market funds to stocks.

Equities: Options traders are focused on today’s jobs report. Here is the short-term S&P 500 implied volatility curve.

Rates: BofA private clients continue to rotate from Treasury bills to notes.

Food for Thought: How social media usage changes ahead of the presidential election across different age groups:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Energy: Options traders see crude oil risks skewed to the upside. Here is the Dec 2024 volatility smile.

Here is the 25-delta put/call skew.

Equities: Market breadth has improved dramatically over the past couple of months.

China: Demand for call options on China-focused equity ETFs (FXI shown below) has been surging.

The United Kingdom: The pound has been gaining against the euro due to faster ECB rate cut expectations.

Emerging Markets: Economists have been downgrading their forecasts for Mexico’s GDP growth this year as exports soften.

Food for Thought: Impact of the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut on financial sentiment by household income:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United States: Job openings increased again in August, topping expectations.

Canada: Consumer confidence continues to climb.

China: Hong Kong-listed shares continue to surge.

Commodities: The October-November LME aluminum spread continues to widen.

Equities: Nondealer positioning in US equity futures has been surging.

Food for Thought: Longest-living US presidents:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Japan: Lower front-end Treasury yields would likely weigh on USD/JPY, more so than other currencies.

The United States: Here is a look at the distribution of mortgage rates for outstanding loans.

China: Stocks continue to surge and are now overbought.

But the rally could continue because it’s coming off very depressed levels, especially relative to US stocks.

Emerging Markets: Thailand’s exports remain at record highs for this time of the year.

Rates: Let’s begin with some attribution data for Treasury yields (August and Q3).

Food for Thought: Helene’s projected financial impact among the most expensive US storms:

Edited by William Villacis

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The United Kingdom: The September CBI report showed a rebound in retail sales.

Energy: The probability of another tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days increased from 40% to 50%.

Japan: Traders continue to boost their bets on the yen.

China: A soft September manufacturing PMI report from S&P Global underscores the need for monetary stimulus.

Commodities: Iron ore continues to surge.

Global Developments: Monetary easing accelerated in September.

Food for Thought: Growth in religious unaffiliation across US age groups from 2013 to 2023:

Edited by William Villacis

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