The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The unemployment rate declined, suggesting that the labor market remains tight.

The United Kingdom: Government debt service costs are elevated.

China: It takes an increasingly larger investment to achieve the same level of output.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto exchanges experienced a drop in trading volume this year, especially Bittrex and Binance.

Energy: US rig count continues to trend lower.

Equities: Hedge funds boosted their bets against Nasdaq futures last week.

Food for Thought: SpaceX valuation:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

 

The United States: According to the ISM PMI report, service sector growth slowed in July.

Europe: Swiss core inflation eased again in July.

Emerging Markets: The trade balance in South Africa unexpectedly swung into deficit in June.

Commodities: US pork belly prices are surging.

Equities: Retail investors remain bullish.

Credit: US bankruptcy filings remain elevated.

Food for Thought: The racial breakdown of college attendance by admission rate for 2021:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Historically, when inflation crosses 8%, it takes years, not months, before it falls back below 2%.

Rental vacancies are up this year, but homeowner vacancies hit a record low. The homeowner vacancy rate is defined as a proportion of homes that are for sale and vacant as a percentage of the total homeowner inventory.

The Eurozone: This chart shows the drivers of collapsing business loan demand.

Equities: The stock-bond correlation surged in recent weeks.

Commodities: Wheat prices tumbled despite another Russian attack on Ukrainian grain infrastructure.

Energy: US oil inventories plummeted last week.

Food for Thought: Interest in voting for a “Unity Ticket”:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Job openings continue to trend lower (slowly).

The Eurozone: Demand for fixed-investment financing has deteriorated.

Emerging Markets: EM inflation has been surprising to the downside …

… and is back to central bank target ranges, which could pave the way for rate cuts.

Commodities: Milk prices are tumbling on weak China demand.

Equities: The market performs well after the Fed’s last rate hike.

Rates: The amount of T-bills outstanding is surging.

Food for Thought: Social media platforms as news sources:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Freddie Mac’s house price index was up in June on a year-over-year basis. Note that the index didn’t cross the zero mark in this cycle.

Fed rate hikes have yet to kick in. The Fed-sensitive (cyclical) CPI component is still near the highs.

China: The manufacturing PMI from S&P Global showed an unexpected contraction as demand slows.

The Eurozone: The factors propelling the surge in the Euro-area’s Q2 GDP are unlikely to be sustainable. The lion’s share of these gains can be attributed to the notoriously volatile Irish GDP, which is often subject to significant revisions, and the exports of transport equipment in France, predominantly from a single cruise boat.

Equities: Hedge funds’ short-covering this summer hasn’t been this aggressive since 2016.

Credit: TIPS flows finally turned positive last week.

Energy: OPEC’s output declined in July

Food for Thought: Here is the projected US federal deficit and debt:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts on the US stock market covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook.

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The United States: Consumer spending increased in June, with gains across goods and services.

Equities: It has been a while since the S&P 500 experienced a 1%+ drop. According to SentimenTrader, this type of dynamic is almost exclusively witnessed during bull markets.

The Eurozone: Forecasters (ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters) downgraded their estimates for the euro-area GDP growth over the next few years.

Europe: Sweden’s economy contracted sharply last quarter.

Japan: JGB yields surged to multi-year highs as the BoJ adjusts the yield control policy.

Emerging Markets: LatAm rate cuts have started, with Chile reducing rates by 100 bps (the market expected 75 bps).

Cryptocurrency: Curve Finance, a major stablecoin exchange, fell victim to an exploit.

Food for Thought: US trust funds are headed toward insolvency:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The GDP report topped expectations, signaling robust economic growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was much closer to the Q2 figure than the consensus forecast (see chart).

Europe: This chart shows road freight transport between EU and non-EU countries.

China: Hedge funds have been cutting their exposure.

Cryptocurrency: Here is a look at Bitcoin mining energy sources versus global electricity.

Equities: Firms recognized for their frequent share buy-back initiatives have been underperforming.

Credit: US commercial property prices continue to decline, with office properties bearing the brunt of this downward trend.

Food for Thought: Gen-Z’s and Millennials’ industry preferences:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The gap between houses sold and those under construction is narrowing.

Equities: The recent market action does not look like a bear-market rally.

Credit: Prime money market funds experience inflows during rate hike cycles, while government funds face outflows. However, in March of this year, government money market funds became a haven for depositors.

The Eurozone: Loan growth continues to slow in the Eurozone.

Commodities: Cocoa prices are surging due to concerns about future production amid tight inventories.

Global Developments: Retail sales have generally been weak in developed markets outside of the US over the past year.

Food for Thought: Here is tipping in the US – Americans vs. foreigners:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Robust employment and stock market gains contributed to improving mood. Here are the contributions to the Conference Board’s index.

The United Kingdom
: Gains in selling prices have been moderating.

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s GDP growth has slowed, although sequential gains in services offset declines in manufacturing.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin is back below $30k and testing support at the 50-day moving average.

Commodities: US cotton futures have been surging due to dry conditions for the Southern Plains and Delta regions.

Equities: Stocks benefiting from AI advances continue to outperform.

Food for Thought: US pedestrian deaths:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

Before we begin, we wanted to alert you to one of our favorite weekend reads: the Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm by Callum Thomas — it features 10 handpicked charts on the US stock market covering macro, technicals, valuations, and more — it’s a quick and effective way to stay on top of the market outlook.

The United States: The services PMI index from S&P Global declined in July but remained in growth territory (PMI > 50). Business outlook and hiring softened.

Labor market imbalances continue to ease as job openings moderate.

Equities: The S&P 500 PE ratio has diverged from real yields.

This is the first US non-revolving debt contraction in 12 years, underpinned by tighter lending standards.

The United Kingdom: The US-UK 10-year spread is tightening.

The Eurozone: The euro-area composite PMI shows shrinking business activity.

Commodities: Orange juice futures hit a record high.

Food for Thought: Here are weekend box office gross proceeds:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief