The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Hiring remained robust in August, but the labor market continues to soften.

The jobs report reinforces the view that the Fed is likely done with rate hikes.

Equities: Softer retail ETF demand was more about fixed income than equities.

The United Kingdom: Home price declines haven’t been this severe since the GFC.

Asia-Pacific: The Aussie dollar is sharply lower after the RBA left rates unchanged again.

Emerging Markets: Here is a look at LatAm policy rate forecasts.

Global Developments: Global factory activity remains in contraction mode.

Food for Thought: Here are US maternal mortality rates:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

 

The United States: Most sectors registered an increase in consumption (2 charts).

The Eurozone: French inflation accelerated in August, boosted by higher energy prices.

Japan: Japanese stocks continue to outperform Asian peers.

Commodities: Here is last month’s performance across key commodity markets.

Equities: Retail investors were unprepared for the market rebound.

Credit: Here is last month’s performance across credit asset classes.

Food for Thought: Music popularity by genre:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ADP private payrolls report for August came in well below expectations. Although this metric isn’t a reliable forecaster of the official employment report, it suggests a potential slowdown in the job market.

Global Developments: September tends to be a good month for the US dollar.

Equities: The S&P 500 valuations continue to diverge from that of the equal-weight index.

The United Kingdom: Mortgage approvals declined more than expected last month.

Commodities: Orange juice futures hit a record high amid low supplies.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index flipped back into “neutral” territory after reaching “fear” levels last week. News of Grayscale’s court victory versus the SEC boosted investor optimism.

Food for Thought: The fast food app market:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The July job openings print came in below forecasts, suggesting that the job market continues to loosen.

The Eurozone: Germany’s real wage growth is back above zero.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto assets saw some outflows in recent days.

China: This chart displays the cumulative construction starts for 2023 in comparison to the trends observed from 2010 onwards.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s economic confidence is deteriorating.

Equities: The S&P 500 cleared its 50-day moving average.

Food for Thought: Legal status of sports betting:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey shows that businesses boosted wages this month.

Equities: September tends to be the worst month for US stocks.

Rates: The Treasury curve undergoes a bull steepener when the unemployment rate starts rising.

China: Economists continue to lower their projections for China’s GDP growth.

Emerging Markets: Hedge funds have been boosting their bets on EM equities.

Commodities: Platinum has been rebounding, widening its outperformance over palladium.

Food for Thought: Canada’s 2023 wildfire emissions in perspective:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: The market interpreted Powell’s comments as being a bit on the hawkish side, pushing the probability of another rate hike to 65%.

Credit card delinquencies are grinding higher as consumers face headwinds.

Credit: Stressed credits have been outperforming.

Equities: This month, the S&P 500 failed to achieve two consecutive daily gains – a phenomenon not seen in years.

Japan: The BoJ’s JGB purchases are expected to hit a record high this year.

The Eurozone: Germany’s Ifo sentiment index surprised to the downside.

Food for Thought: Active trading by members of Congress:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Elevated real rates suggest that the spending shift from goods to services will continue.

Rates: At the Jackson Hole meeting, there’s likely to be significant discussion about the long-run interest rate and whether the current US monetary policy is sufficiently tight. Here are some estimates (real rates).

Equities: Here is how the S&P 500 performed around Jackson Hole events.

The Eurozone: Markets downshifted ECB rate hike expectations after the disappointing August PMI report (see chart).

Asia-Pacific: South Korean corporate earnings are improving relative to China.

Emerging Markets: Turkey’s central bank surprised with a 750 bps rate hike, as Hafize Gaye Erkan pursues a more traditional monetary policy.

Food for Thought: The AI gold rush:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Despite soft demand, businesses are reporting an upturn in inflation.

• •  Richmond Fed’s regional manufacturing survey shows slower current price increases, …

… but measures of expected prices have turned higher.

The United Kingdom: Government borrowing was lower than expected last month.

Asia-Pacific: Australia’s service-sector contraction accelerated this month.

Commodities: Hedge funds have reduced their exposure to precious metals.

Rates: The Fed is less uncertain about forecasting lower inflation ahead.

Food for Thought: Relative chance of enrolling in highly selective colleges based on parents’ income group:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: While rents are down on a year-over-year basis, they continue to rise.

Canada: Home prices are rebounding.

China: Beijing managed to stabilize the renminbi.

Equities: A breakout in the 10-year Treasury yield is not always bearish for stocks.

Tech fund flows remain strong.

Global Developments: Rate expectations have declined more in the Eurozone and UK vs. the US.

Food for Thought: 735 million people are facing hunger.

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

 

The United States: Tighter financial conditions have resulted from higher bond yields, recent gains in the dollar, and the stock market wobble.

The United Kingdom: UK inflation has been more persistent than that in the Eurozone.

Commodities: Have agriculture fund outflows finally ceased?

Energy: European LNG prices remain elevated amid labor uncertainty in Australia’s gas platforms.

Equities: Sentiment deteriorated sharply in recent days.

• • The put/call ratio:

Food for Thought: The US pay gap has been narrowing:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief