Greetings, The United States: Below is a chart of US consumer inflation distribution by item. Both “tails” are on the rise. IIF attributes the lower tail to the “Amazon effect.” The upper tail, however, shows “signs of overheating.” China: Beijing is increasingly concerned about the nation’s rising dollar-denominated debt. It limits the government’s ability …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 10th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The number of Americans receiving food stamps (about 40 million) is drifting lower but is still well above the pre-recession levels China: China’s trade surplus with the US is growing, but it’s contracting with the rest of the world. Global Developments: Speculative accounts continue to bet on the …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 9th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Most FOMC members now see the risks to the GDP and inflation as “broadly balanced.” Asia: Asia’s financial conditions have tightened substantially. Global Developments: The average unemployment rate in the OECD nations is at the lowest level in decades. Equity Markets: Merrill Lynch’s private clients still hold extremely low levels …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 6th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Today’s official payrolls report will provide clues to whether worker shortages are translating into faster wage increases. Economists expect to see a jump in hourly earnings. Morgan Stanley’s forecast below is in line with the median estimate. China: Chinese authorities are concerned about another round of capital outflows – …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 5th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: At first glance, US household balance sheets appear to be stronger than those in Canada (household credit as a percentage of the GDP). However, when unincorporated business loans are taken into account, the situation changes. Many Americans are indebted via their sole proprietorships, etc. (effectively personal loans for business purposes). …
The Daily Shot Brief – July 3rd, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The US Chamber of Commerce performed a state-by-state analysis of the tariff retaliations’ impact on US exports. Here is the full map China: China is trying to boost its fledgling semiconductor industry by stealing intellectual property from Taiwan. Global Developments: Here is how the trade war escalation will begin to have …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: Which states will feel the brunt of trade retaliations against US tariffs? China: Here is the breakdown of the PBoC’s balance sheet. The increase over the past couple of years has been due to liquidity facilities for banks. Global Developments: Generating strong economic growth without credit expansion is …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The Citi US Economic Surprise Index has been pulled lower by housing and durable goods reports. Will the trend continue? For now, things are looking up for the second quarter GDP growth. Here is the median economic forecast from Bloomberg. China: Investment activity remains robust. The Eurozone: Italian …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 25th, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The magnitude of GDP growth fluctuations in the US is the lowest in decades. It’s one of the reasons for depressed volatility across asset classes including bonds and stocks. China: The renminbi is drifting lower against the dollar. The Eurozone: Multinationals based in the euro area are lagging …
The Daily Shot Brief – June 21st, 2018
Greetings, The United States: The Social Security program had a cash deficit each year since 2009. The deficit was masked by interest income – until now. China: Fixed asset investment growth has been slowing. Credit: Most states have regulatory environments that are supportive of credit. Equity Markets: A strong dollar will be …
