Greetings, Commodities: Farmers are concerned that hostilities in the Middle East could curtail US wheat exports to the region. Credit: US auto loan and credit card delinquencies have been trending higher. Emerging Markets: Growth in the UAE’s business activity stalled even before the ratcheting of Middle East tensions. Japan: Here are …
The Daily Shot Brief – January 7th, 2020
Greetings, The United States: Turning to manufacturing, the ISM and Markit PMI measures have diverged further. Part of the difference is the ISM indicator’s higher correlation to factory activity in the Midwest, which experienced significant deterioration in recent months (see chart). Will a rebound in manufacturing in 2020 provide a tailwind for economic …
The Daily Shot Brief – January 6th, 2020
Greetings, Energy: The US economy’s exposure to rising crude oil prices is relatively low. The nation’s oil intensity (oil consumed per unit of GDP) has declined significantly in recent decades (see chart). And US net imports of crude are at the lowest level in years. Also, US crude oil inventories declined in recent …
The Daily Shot Brief – January 3rd, 2020
Greetings, Equities: The S&P 500 hit a record high after China’s central bank cut reserve requirements, which will release a substantial amount of liquidity into the financial system (see #3 here). As discussed previously, technical indicators signal that the market is overbought. Credit: Here is S&P’s credit upgrades-to-downgrades ratio. Europe: Will we see …
The Daily Shot Brief – January 2nd, 2020
Greetings, The United States: Online search activity for mortgage loans/refinancing is off the highs (the index peaked in August) but remains elevated. Next, we have the US banking system vulnerability metrics, which have all been ticking higher over the past year. Here is how each index is defined, according to the Federal Reserve …
The Daily Shot Brief – January 1st, 2020
Greetings, Business: Job cuts at banks: Technology: Electric vehicles: Economic Trends: The number of labor strike days per 1,000 employees: Geopolitical Trends: Defense spending: Health: Healthcare spending per person: Happy New Year! Most popular new year’s resolutions (2 charts): Edited by Daniel Moskovits To receive the Daily Shot Premium, you …
The Daily Shot Brief – December 31st, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Higher labor costs are pressuring corporate margins. The Eurozone: Traders are upbeat on the euro. Here is the 3-month EUR/USD risk reversal. Emerging Markets: Quantitative easing in developed economies should support EM equities. Energy: The Brent curve backwardation continues to climb, which tends to signal tight supplies. Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 31st, 2019”
The Daily Shot Brief – December 30th, 2019
Greetings, The United States: Strong labor markets have been supporting consumer sentiment. Additionally, holiday sales on the final Saturday before Christmas hit a new record. China: China’s sovereign credit default swap spread continues to tighten. It should be noted that corporate bond defaults hit a record this year. Commodities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 30th, 2019”
The Daily Shot Brief – December 20th, 2019
Greetings, Administrative Update The next Daily Shot Brief will be out on Monday, December 30th. Equities: Below is the consensus forecast for the S&P 500 (above 3,400 next year). Energy: The recent rally in oil prices seems to be inconsistent with rising inventories. Emerging Markets: According to Oxford Economics, global industrial growth …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 20th, 2019”
The Daily Shot Brief – December 19th, 2019
Greetings, Emerging Markets: The growth in global central bank balance sheets has been positive for the EM shares. And the recent improvements in the US-China trade situation have been especially helpful. Equities: The S&P CAPE ratio has risen above 30 only three times in history. Rates: The Treasury curve has steepened substantially in recent …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 19th, 2019”
