The Daily Shot Brief – January 2nd, 2020



The United States: Online search activity for mortgage loans/refinancing is off the highs (the index peaked in August) but remains elevated.

Source: Arbor Research & Trading


Next, we have the US banking system vulnerability metrics, which have all been ticking higher over the past year.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Read full article

Here is how each index is defined, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• Capital Vulnerability: Measures how well-capitalized banks are projected to be after a macroeconomic shock.

• Fire-Sale Vulnerability: Measures the magnitude of spillover losses among banks caused by asset fire-sales in a shock.

• Liquidity Stress Ratio: The ratio of expected cash outflows in times of stress to the size of the bank’s portfolio of liquid assets. A high ratio signals potential challenges in dealing with a liquidity crunch.

• Run Vulnerability Ratio: Gauges vulnerability to a bank run.

To be sure, the US banking system remains quite healthy relative to pre-recession levels.


China: Growth in China’s construction sector has been slowing.

Source: The Daily Shot


Emerging Markets: Vietnam continues to benefit from the US-China trade dispute.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics


Equities: Here is the S&P 500 P/E distribution since 1935.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research


Global Developments: Currency market volatility was unusually low in 2019.

Source: Alpine Macro


Food for Thought: Year-end bonuses by sector:

Source: @BLS_gov; Read full article

Edited by Devon Lall

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