The United States: Online search activity for mortgage loans/refinancing is off the highs (the index peaked in August) but remains elevated.
Next, we have the US banking system vulnerability metrics, which have all been ticking higher over the past year.
Here is how each index is defined, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
• Capital Vulnerability: Measures how well-capitalized banks are projected to be after a macroeconomic shock.
• Fire-Sale Vulnerability: Measures the magnitude of spillover losses among banks caused by asset fire-sales in a shock.
• Liquidity Stress Ratio: The ratio of expected cash outflows in times of stress to the size of the bank’s portfolio of liquid assets. A high ratio signals potential challenges in dealing with a liquidity crunch.
• Run Vulnerability Ratio: Gauges vulnerability to a bank run.
To be sure, the US banking system remains quite healthy relative to pre-recession levels.
China: Growth in China’s construction sector has been slowing.
Emerging Markets: Vietnam continues to benefit from the US-China trade dispute.
Equities: Here is the S&P 500 P/E distribution since 1935.
Global Developments: Currency market volatility was unusually low in 2019.
Food for Thought: Year-end bonuses by sector:
Edited by Devon Lall
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