Greetings, The United States: Will the yield curve inversion boost the odds of a recession? Below is the latest survey result from the WSJ. The United Kingdom: A “hard Brexit” economic shock could devastate the UK’s property market. China: China’s P2P lending activity continues to slow. The Eurozone: Wage indicators across the Eurozone are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 17th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Relative to other countries, US housing valuations do not appear to be stretched. The United Kingdom: The nation’s housing market momentum is slowing again. China: Here is Goldman’s China current activity indicator. The Eurozone: The ECB downgraded its forecast (slightly) for the GDP growth and inflation. The central …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 14th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US imports of consumer electronics from China have accelerated over the past couple of years. The United Kingdom: Goldman’s Eurozone GDP tracker fell sharply in response to the industrial production report. The Eurozone: Goldman’s Eurozone GDP tracker fell sharply in response to the industrial production report. Equity …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 13th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The maximum fed funds rate in this cycle is expected to be around 3.0 – 3.5%. It does not leave sufficient room to cut rates in the next recession unless the Fed takes the rate below zero or restarts QE. Many states will get hit hard without a more traditional …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The market reaction to Friday’s upside wage growth surprise was far more benign than after a similar report in February. Volatility across key markets has been flat since Friday. China: While China has a record trade surplus with the US, the nation runs a deficit with other major trading …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 11th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US consumers, especially those with higher incomes, are increasingly concerned about tariffs. China: China’s export growth appears to be overstated based on trade data reported by the nation’s trading partners. The Eurozone: Sweden’s central bank (Riksbank) pushed out its forecast for rate increases – again. It also downgraded …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 7th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Manufacturing reports continue to show rapid inventory build. The Daily Feather: – Major restocking tends to coincide with the economy emerging from a recession, making the current inventory build unusual – in a bad way. Fear is driving companies to overbuild inventories. Transportation bottlenecks and worries over future higher-priced input …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 5th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US farm income continues to trend lower. The second chart below shows the regional changes. China: China’s shrinking labor force will become a drag on growth. The Eurozone: The Eurozone’s consumer inflation was softer than expected, with the core CPI stuck at 1%. Equity Markets: Fewer stocks …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 4th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: For now, there are no signs of acceleration in labor costs. Here is Goldman’s wage growth tracker. China: The Capital Economics China GDP tracker is moving lower again. The Eurozone: The unemployment rate varies drastically across the Eurozone. Equity Markets: Fund managers have become extremely overweight US …
Greetings, The United States: Oxford Economics is forecasting weaker business investment growth going forward. China: China’s domestic bond issuance has slowed. The Eurozone: Investors are concerned that the new Italian government will embark on a more expansionary fiscal policy. The political parties in charge are still very popular. Here are some debt-to-GDP …
