Greetings, The United States: US manufacturing growth continues to outperform China and the Eurozone. Is this divergence sustainable? China: Economic activity indicators point to deterioration that is not fully visible in the official figures. • Goldman’s indicator: • Barclays’ indicator: The Eurozone: Robust wage growth should boost the services CPI. Equities: Here is the ratio …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 5th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Small business sentiment has deteriorated. China: Below is the breakdown of fiscal revenues and expenditures. The Eurozone: The average retail deposit rate ticked higher for the first time in seven years. Equities: Sector funds saw substantial outflows over the past three months. Credit: This chart shows the shift …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 4th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The ECRI leading index of economic indicators appears to have stabilized as well. China: China is expected to keep growing its renewables capacity. The Eurozone: Italy’s underperformance has worsened. Equities: The 2019 earnings estimates for the S&P 500 keep moving lower. Credit: Overall, interest coverage ratios are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 1st, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Several analysts are predicting that the US and China will come to a resolution on trade this spring. This chart shows a US-China trade policy risk indicator (with a forecast). China: China’s banks trade below book value. The Eurozone: Japanese investors have been buying quite a bit of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 30th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Tech firms are pulling back on capital expenditures. In particular, the build-out of data centers appears to be taking a pause (perhaps due to softer demand for cloud services). Monday’s disappointing earnings from NVIDIA provided further evidence for this trend (see story). Slowing business investment could become a drag on …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 29th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: What is the long-run potential US GDP growth? Goldman sees it at 1.75%. China: Commercial bank asset growth has slowed in recent years. The Eurozone: Turkey’s currency collapse had contributed to the weakness in the Eurozone’s exports last year. Equities: Risk parity funds remain underexposed to the stock …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 28th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Some analysts are already forecasting a sharp decline in the GDP growth this quarter. China: Economic growth is expected to slow further before it stabilizes. The Eurozone: Germany’s corporate earnings per share (EPS) estimates are now lagging the rest of the Eurozone. Equities: Here are a couple of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 25th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The US Sales Manager Index (SMI) from World Economics shows that business activity is holding up in January. However, business confidence softened, and the pace of hiring (“staffing levels”) slowed substantially. China: Softer disposable income growth does not bode well for retail sales. The Eurozone: This chart shows the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 24th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Are sentiment indicators (driven in part by the government shutdown) signaling a sharp deceleration in consumer spending? China: Exports are expected to slow in the months ahead. The Eurozone: China’s slowdown has been one of the key drivers of economic weakness in the Eurozone. Equities: Here is what …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 23rd, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Business investment is expected to cool. China: China’s money supply expansion has been lagging loan growth (liquidity is not making its way into the broader economy). This scatterplot shows corporate profitability vs. the velocity of money. The Eurozone: According to Goldman Sachs, government debt spreads will widen in the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – January 17th, 2019”
