Greetings, The United States: US railcar loadings (an indicator of economic activity) are still well above the levels we saw in previous years. However, railcar loadings of cyclical cargo have slowed more than they did in 2017 for this time of the year. China: Lower government bond yields should support the housing market …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 20th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The headline CPI is expected to decelerate sharply next year as a result of lower oil prices and a stronger US dollar. China: Business conditions have deteriorated. The Eurozone: The selloff in China’s stock market does not bode well for the Eurozone’s carmakers. Rates: Rather than relying on …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 19th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The number of Americans not working due to illness has declined in recent years (higher wages pull more people into the labor force). China: Credit expansion continues. The weakness has been in non-bank credit. The Eurozone: When is the ECB’s “liftoff”? Rates: Will the massive global debt load …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Residential investment has been weakening in recent quarters. At the same time, the latest Senior Loan Officer Survey from the Fed shows falling demand for residential mortgages. It’s worth noting that in the past, declines in residential investment led the way into recessions. China: China increasingly imports goods for …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 14th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US transport/logistics prices continue to climb. China: Bank lending rates have been unusually high relative to money market rates. The Eurozone: Part of the reason for the euro area’s equity underperformance is the weakness in the “administered” (state-controlled) sectors. Slower GDP growth has also been a factor. Equities: Does …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 13th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: How will the latest tariff increases impact consumer inflation? China: The latest increase in China’s exports was driven by US firms “frontloading” orders ahead of tariffs. The Eurozone: Italy benefitted tremendously from the ECB’s TLTRO program (chart below) as lending rates contracted (second chart below). Equities: Market timers have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Will improved pricing power in the corporate sector result in an upside inflation surprise? China: The percentage of Chinese bonds held by foreigners keeps climbing. Eurozone: Here is Goldman’s Q4 GDP tracker for the Eurozone. Equities: Valuations remain reasonable since the October selloff. However, analysts are concerned …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: US multinationals have been repatriating cash from Ireland. Asia-Pacific: New Zealand’s bond yields are still climbing. Eurozone: Real rate differentials between the Eurozone and the US have been a drag on the euro. Equities: Bank shares were also lagging amid concerns that Democrats will increase scrutiny on the sector. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The US agricultural sentiment index (Ag Economy Barometer) improved in October on hopes that the NAFTA 2.0 deal will ease trade tensions. China:Goldman’s money-supply indicator for China has diverged from the nation’s credit growth. Eurozone: Economists expect rising wages to nudge the Eurozone’s inflation rate higher. Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 7th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the difference between CEOs’ future expectations and their assessment of the present situation. The second chart has the same measure for the consumer. China: The Caixin/Markit Composite PMI (manufacturing + services) is approaching 50 (business activity growth is stalling). Europe: Finally, this chart shows government debt …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2018”
