The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2018



The United States: This chart shows the difference between CEOs’ future expectations and their assessment of the present situation. The second chart has the same measure for the consumer.

Source: Gavekal


China: The Caixin/Markit Composite PMI (manufacturing + services) is approaching 50 (business activity growth is stalling).

Source: Markit,


Europe:  Finally, this chart shows government debt service burdens as a percentage of the GDP.

Source: IIF


Equities: Analysts are still upbeat on corporate earnings.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

Growth has been strong even without the impact of lower taxes.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

But earnings growth is expected to return to more typical levels next year.

Source:, h/t Paul Menestrier; Read full article


CreditCorporate defaults slowed further during the last quarter. Are credit investors being lulled into complacency?

Source: Moody’s Investors Service


Emerging Markets: Markets are showing signs of improvement (although gains have been uneven). Here is Mexico’s stock index, for example.

Source: The Daily Shot


Food for Thought: What are the betting markets telling us about the outcome of the US midterm elections (cents = % probability)?

Source: @PredictIt

Edited by Joseph Cohen

What We’re Reading: The Kobeissi Letter

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Thanks to Josh Marte (@joshdigga), Matt Garrett (@MattGarrett3), Joseph Cohen (@josephncohen),, S&P Global, and Moody’s Investors Service for helping with the research for the Daily Shot.

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