The Daily Shot® Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Housing starts strengthened last month as multifamily construction rebounded.

The gap between total housing completions and building permits has been narrowing, signaling a positive trend for the housing market.

Equities:  The GS positioning index shifted to neutral.

Global Developments: Rate differentials point to downside risks for the dollar.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin hit a record high, nearing $110k.

Commodities: Speculative accounts continue to boost their bets on US cattle futures.

Food for Thought: The impact of NYC Congestion Pricing:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the Q4 GDP growth got a boost from the robust retail sales report.

The United Kingdom: Services output edged higher.

China: Industrial production growth topped forecasts.

Cryptocurrency: XRP has been surging.

Equities: US market breadth is starting to improve again.

Food for Thought: Bird migration pathways:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: Treasury yields dropped sharply following the softer-than-expected core CPI print.

The Eurozone: Germany’s economy contracted for the second year in a row in 2024.

Japan: Yield differentials point to downside risks for dollar-yen.

Equities: Here is an overview of equity market performance across different segments on US CPI release day.

Small-caps are now highly correlated to Treasuries.

Commodities: In late 2024, gold’s correlation with stocks started to decline, while the stock/bond correlation turned positive.

Food for Thought: 151 years of S&P 500 returns with a forecast for 2025:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Wildfire disasters often drive inflation higher, primarily by increasing vehicle prices.

The United Kingdom: Services inflation declined sharply.

China: Growth in bank loan balances continued to decelerate, with new lending slowing in 2024.

Cryptocurrency: Selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders reached the highest level since April 2024.

Equities: Post-election year S&P 500 returns have historically shown a bimodal distribution, highlighting heightened uncertainty.

Food for Thought: NFL kicker accuracy improved significantly over time, especially for long-distance field goals.

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: This is the second longest streak of continuous payroll gains since 1939.

Betting markets have sharply reduced the likelihood of a recession this year following the election.

Equities: The options market is anticipating record-high earnings reactions, with implied single-stock moves outpacing broader market volatility.

The sharp drop in funding spreads reflects reduced demand for equity derivatives. Institutional investors, including pension funds and hedge funds, appear to have shifted to net selling amid evolving Fed rate expectations.

The Eurozone:  French bond spreads remain elevated amid political budget uncertainty.

India: The rupee has been under pressure.

Japan: Japan’s stock/bond correlation remains elevated, which typically occurs during periods of high inflation.

Food for Thought: Grocery retailers’ market share:

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: The unemployment rate declined.

The United Kingdom: Here is a look at the UK’s energy sources.

China: Trade was a substantial portion of the GDP growth last year.

Emerging Markets: Here is Mexico’s factory output.

Equities: Small caps have struggled in recent weeks as bond yields climb.

Credit: Bank loan funds continue to see inflows.

Food for Thought: Math scores:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States: US labor force growth has stalled.

The United Kingdom: The pound remains under pressure.

Emerging Markets: Argentina’s factory output continues to rebound.

Cryptocurrency: It has been a tough week for cryptos so far, with DeFi tokens underperforming.

Equities: Bank stocks continue to underperform the S&P 500 since the SVB collapse.

Rates: USD-denominated money market fund assets are nearing $7 trillion.

Food for Thought: OpenAI’s valuation:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

The United States:  FOMC participants sharply shifted their views on inflation risks (to the upside).

Consumer credit unexpectedly fell in November, marked by the steepest drop in credit card debt since the 2020 COVID shock.

The United Kingdom: Gilt yields are hitting multi-year highs.

Japan: Wage growth has accelerated.

Equities: The UBS Early Warning Signal points to downside risk for stocks.

Rates: Treasury yields continue to diverge for the copper-to-gold ratio.

Commodities: US egg prices are at record highs.

Food for Thought: Cancer rates have been rising among younger Americans, driven by gastrointestinal cancers.

Edited by William Villacis

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Greetings,

The United States: Layoffs remain subdued.

The United Kingdom: Falling vacancy rates point to weaker wage pressures.

Asia-Pacific: Australia’s job vacancies have paused their downward trend, which began in mid-2022.

Commodities: Shanghai steel futures remain under pressure.

Equities: The stock-bond correlation is positive again.

Credit: Last year’s bankruptcy filings reached their highest level since 2010.

Food for Thought: Support for the TikTok ban in the US by age group:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

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Greetings,

Equities: The S&P 500 average stock (Equal Weight Index) valuation discount to the S&P 500 continues to widen.

Canada: Canada’s yield curve has been steepening.

China: China’s total private debt service ratio hit a record high.

Emerging Markets: Here is an overview of projected policy rate changes for LatAm central banks.

Rates: TLT is down 14% from the September 2024 peak.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto funds saw modest outflows last week after attracting a record $44 billion in fresh capital last year.

Food for Thought: Declining fish consumption in Japan:

Edited by William Villacis

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