The Daily Shot Brief – October 5th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The ADP private payrolls report alleviated some concerns about the US labor market’s vitality raised by the job openings data.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: MarketWatch  Read full article

 

Canada: The CFIB Business Barometer points to a downturn in Canada’s GDP.

Source: Capital Economics

 

Energy: Crude oil prices plunged in response to weak gasoline demand in the US.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Equities: The market keeps betting on the US onshoring trend.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: Retail sales dropped sharply in August.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Global Developments: Wider interest rate differentials supported the recent dollar rally.

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

 

Food for Thought: Buying vs. renting:

Source: Visual Capitalist  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – October 4th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The job openings report exceeded expectations, suggesting that the labor market may not be cooling fast enough for the Fed.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: CNBC

 

Japan: The 10-year JGB yield is the highest in a decade.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Commodity market inflows remain robust.

Source: JP Morgan Research; @dailychartbook

 

Equities: The Dow has given up its gains for the year and is now firmly in oversold territory.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Credit: Leveraged loans (which pay a floating-rate coupon) continue to outperform high-yield bonds.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Rates: Treasury term premium continues to rise.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Literacy scores:

Source: USAFacts

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – October 3rd, 2023

Greetings,

 

Equities: So far, US homebuilding stocks have shrugged off accelerating mortgage rates.

Source: Aazan Habib, Paradigm Capital

 

Emerging Markets: EM bond prices continue to sink in dollar terms.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Surging real rates and the US dollar rally continue to pose downside risks for gold.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

The United States: The September ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating an easing in the US factory slump.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Last month, the decline in rents was greater than the typical decrease observed in September.

Source: Apartment List

 

The Eurozone: The manufacturing slump continued last month, with the PMI report pointing to weakness in industrial production.

Source: S&P Global PMI
Source: Reuters  Read full article

 

Asia-Pacific: JGB yields continue to grind higher.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Here are the largest metro populations globally:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – October 2nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Real consumer spending edged higher in August.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Japan: The Tankan report topped expectations, with companies reporting improved business conditions in manufacturing and services.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: ABC News

 

Commodities: Nickel prices hit the lowest level since 2021.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Energy: The US rig count continues to trend lower.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Stock market valuations drive longer-term performance.

Source: BofA Global Research; @dailychartbook

 

Food for Thought: US EV sales:

Source: Reuters

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – September 29th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The GDP-GDI divergence (see definition) remains a concern.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: UK stocks and bonds have been highly correlated.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: The rapid money-supply contraction signals weaker economic activity ahead

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

Energy: US gasoline futures fell further on Thursday.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Tight financial conditions suggest that dividend yields should be higher.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

 

Food for Thought: Immigrant founders of unicorn companies in the US:

Source: @TheDailyShot

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.

The Daily Shot Brief – September 28th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The market has repriced the expected longer-term fed funds rate trajectory in recent weeks.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The restriction of oil supply is viewed as the largest upside risk to headline inflation.

Source: FT/Chicago Booth

 

Energy: Crude oil backwardation is deepening amidst supply concerns (2 charts).

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Equity analysts are assuming a rebound in business activity ahead. However, surging bond yields (driving up mortgage rates), the resumption of student loan payments, and the looming government shutdown will be a headwind for the US economy.

Source: TS Lombard

 

Commodities: Gold is finally succumbing to surging real rates.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The Eurozone: The contraction in the money supply has accelerated.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Oil consumption adjusted for GDP:

Source: @TheDailyShot

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – September 27th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: Like the University of Michigan’s report, the Conference Board’s indicator revealed a decline in consumer sentiment this month, with a notable weakness in the expectations measure.

Source: The Daily Shot
Source: AP News

 

The United Kingdom: Will consumer spending stagnate next year?

Source: Oxford Economics

 

China: Here is a look at China’s top 25 real estate companies.

Source: Reuters

 

Cryptocurrency: This map shows the status of central bank digital currency (CBDC) research and pilot projects.

Source: Deutsche Bank Research

 

Commodities: US feeder cattle futures took a hit on Tuesday (stopping at the 50-day moving average) after the USDA reported limited cash sales.

Source: barchart.com
Source: barchart.com

 

Food for Thought: The web browser market:

Source: @chartrdaily

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – September 26th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: US industrial activity is stabilizing along with China’s credit impulse.

Source: PGM Global

 

The Eurozone: PMI indicators point to downside risks for economic growth.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics

 

Equities: Tighter liquidity conditions (due to the Fed’s QT) could weigh on stocks.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Year-to-date, the top seven stocks have accounted for the majority of the returns in the S&P 500.

Source: Torsten Slok, Apollo

 

Commodities: Uranium prices are surging, boosting share prices of uranium producers.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s inflation continues to ease.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: Nursing homes are disappearing:

Source: @WSJ  Read full article

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – September 25th, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: US financial conditions have been tightening, driven by a stronger US dollar, higher yields, wider credit spreads, and a pullback in stocks.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Equities: Retail investors are not as keen on buying the dip in the current selloff.

Source: Vanda Research

 

Credit: Which sectors have the highest share of 2024 and 2025 bond maturities?

Source: BofA Global Research; @MikeZaccardi, @TheStalwart

 

Europe: Switzerland and the UK, which held rates unchanged, saw their currencies underperform last week.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

China: According to the World Economics SMI report, inflation has returned to China’s services sector.

Source: World Economics

 

Emerging Markets: Real rate differentials are less supportive of EM carry trades.

Source: PGM Global

 

Food for Thought: US automakers’ market capitalization per employee:

Source: Jack Ablin, Cresset Wealth Advisors

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


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The Daily Shot Brief – September 22nd, 2023

Greetings,

 

The United States: The Conference Board’s US Leading Index has seen a 17-month consecutive decline, …

Source: The Daily Shot

… a pattern not observed since the Global Financial Crisis.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

The United Kingdom: The BoE left rates unchanged (MPC voted 5-4 in favor of holding) after core inflation registered a monthly decline in August.

Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics
Source: CNBC

 

Japan: The BoJ left policy unchanged, …

Source: @economics

… putting pressure on the yen.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Commodities: Gold continues to consolidate.

Source: barchart.com

 

Equities: It’s been a rough couple of days for stocks after the Fed’s “higher for longer” warning.

Source: The Daily Shot

 

Food for Thought: US metro areas by population:

Source: @TheDailyShot

 


Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com


If you would like to subscribe to the full-length Daily Shot (see example), please register here.