Greetings, United States: Here is the aggregate number of waiting container ships at the three largest US ports. Eurozone: The media coverage of the ECB’s modest (and expected) reduction in securities purchases has been entertaining. The ECB boosted its inflation forecasts. China: Pig herds have been recovering, causing food deflation and …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 10th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: In another sign of tightening labor market conditions, job openings hit a record high in July. United Kingdom: Tax hikes are coming as the UK debt-to-GDP ratio breaks above 100%. China: Inflation ticked lower in August. Cryptocurrency: Cryptocurrencies are stabilizing from the Tuesday sell-off, although performance over the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 9th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Automobile sales continue to weaken, with factories cutting output due to supply shortages. United Kingdom: Staying out of the labor force since the start of the pandemic doesn’t seem to be linked to childcare challenges. Eurozone: How will potential outcomes from this week’s ECB meeting impact the euro? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 8th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for the Q3 GDP growth tumbled after the jobs report. Bond yields jumped, with the market expecting the Fed to let inflation run hotter in response to softer job gains. China: Majority of companies polled are not interested in moving production out of …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 7th, 2021”
Greetings, As a reminder, the next Daily Shot will be out on Tuesday, September 6th. United States: The ADP private employment report was well below forecasts. United Kingdom: Soft consumer credit expansion will dampen the GDP growth. China: A stronger renminbi will be a drag on manufacturing activity. Energy: US crude …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 2nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to deteriorate. Eurozone: Inflation surprised to the upside, hitting the highest level in a decade. ECB’s Knot made some hawkish comments in response to rising inflation. Will taper come sooner than expected? Energy: European natural gas prices have gone parabolic as Russia pumps …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 1st, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update 1. Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Friday, September 3rd and Monday, September 6th. 2. All administrative updates are posted online. United States: Savings glut is having a perverse effect. A financial cushion is now the top reason for not searching for a job urgently. …
Greetings, Administrative Update 1. Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Friday, September 3rd and Monday, September 6th. 2. All administrative updates are posted online. United States: Fed Chair Powell reiterated the central bank’s intention to begin tapering later this year if the economy performs as expected. However, Powell …
Greetings, Eurozone: The divergence in loan growth trends between households and businesses keeps widening. China: Middle-class households are burdened by the high cost of living and childcare, which is one reason for recent government reforms. Emerging Markets: Emerging markets continue to see capital outflows. Equities: The sharp decline in US consumer …
Greetings, United States: Mortgage applications to buy a home typically decline this time of the year. Instead, we got an increase, with the purchase index now well above 2019 levels. Housing demand remains exceptionally strong. Euorzone: Bund yields jumped on Wednesday. Longer-term inflation expectations are grinding higher. China: Construction activity has been …
