Greetings, United States: The payrolls report surprised to the upside, with over 600k private-sector jobs created in October. Moreover, there was a 235k upward revision to earlier data. Here is the breakdown by sector. Eurozone: At this point, there is no Russian natural gas flowing to Germany via Poland. By the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 8th, 2021”
Greetings, United Kingdom: Despite a surge in inflation this year, major central banks are not as eager to hike rates as the markets feared. In recent days, that has been the lesson from the ECB, the Fed, the RBA, and now the BoE. The UK’s central bank surprised the markets by holding rates unchanged. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 5th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Federal Reserve will start tapering securities purchases this month. The initial reductions will be $10 billion in Treasuries and $5 billion in MBS per month, targeting completion for next June. The central bank left itself the option to adjust the pace of tapering. The central bank still sees inflation as …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 4th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The range of expectations for October is the tightest since the start of the pandemic. United Kingdom: Both Barclays and the BoE forecast inflation to surpass the 4% upper-bound set by the central bank by the end of the year … …which could signal the beginning of rate hikes. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The ISM Manufacturing PMI was roughly in line with expectations, indicating brisk factory activity in October. China: Rating agencies continue to clobber developers’ debt. Emerging Markets: EM stocks continue to underperform relative to the S&P 500. Energy: Fitch expects a wave of refinery closures over the next few …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 2nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Short-term Treasury yields continue to climb … … as the market prices in a more aggressive rate hike schedule next year. The first hike is now priced in for next July. Interestingly, risk markets (such as stocks) are ignoring this trend for now. China: Coal prices continue to tumble …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 1st, 2021”
Greetings, United States: GDP growth weakened last quarter, but economists expect a rebound in Q4. United Kingdom: Four hikes by June? Europe: Natural gas prices appear to be rolling over. Cryptocurrency: $3.1 billion of bitcoin options are set to mature on Friday, which could be a source of volatility. The top …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 29th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Holiday sales are expected to exceed $800 billion this year. Canada: The BoC struck a hawkish tone, ending QE and pulling forward rate hikes. This is exactly the type of move that is flattening yield curves around the world. China: The property developers’ deleveraging process is going to be …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 28th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Market-based inflation expectations are climbing. The 10yr breakeven rate reached 2.7% for the first time since 2006. The stock market is also betting on higher inflation. The Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF has been outperforming. Europe: EU gas demand depends mainly on the weather. The current supply situation, according to …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 27th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The nation’s capital expenditures have been relatively slow since the pre-financial-crisis trend. US fixed assets are rapidly aging. Combined with labor shortages, these trends point to robust business investment ahead. Europe: This chart shows homeownership rates in the EU. China: China’s urbanization rate is increasing but at a …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 26th, 2021”
