Greetings, Administrative Update: As a reminder, The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The recent surge in inflation and robust labor markets are forcing the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. The probability of two rate hikes by next July climbed to 60%. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 22nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Companies are increasingly utilizing air cargo to speed up key deliveries as other modes of freight transportation become backed up. It’s an expensive way to move inventory. Canada: A number of large union contracts are about to expire, potentially resulting in sharp wage increases. Europe: Next, we have the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 19th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Residential construction activity is moderating, especially in single-family housing. Here are housing starts: And here’s permits: United Kingdom: Inflation surprised to the upside, adding to the BoE’s concerns about being behind the curve. Eurozone: The Eurozone-US inflation divergence has been a drag on the euro. Cryptocurrency: There is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 18th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: Retail sales were well above expectations in October, with consumers starting their holiday shopping early (apparently unfazed by higher prices). Eurozone: French fertilizer prices are soaring, which will drive up food inflation. China: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 17th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The sharp rise in import costs has fed through to domestic prices over the past year. A stronger US dollar should slow import inflation. Europe: Russian natural gas flows remain tepid. China: Goldman’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 16th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The U. Michigan consumer sentiment index deteriorated further, driven by inflation concerns. One should be cautious with these results because the U. Michigan survey has diverged sharply from the Conference Board’s indicator. Eurozone: Germany’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 15th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Jobless claims are approaching pre-COVID levels. Most of the “labor slack” is gone (2 charts). China: Coal futures prices continue to fall as Beijing forces out “speculators.” Equities: The share of companies beating earnings and sales estimates has moderated in the Q3 reporting season. Credit: Inflows into MBS …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 12th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The CPI report was a shocker, with last month’s inflation rising much faster than markets expected. On a year-over-year basis, CPI gains were at multi-decade highs. Here are the CPI changes in terms of standard deviations. Eurozone: EUR/USD dropped in response to the US CPI report. China: Foreign investors …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 11th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Will rapid wage growth put downward pressure on corporate margins? Below is a comment from Pavilion Global Markets. Eurozone: Supply shortages are at extreme levels across most sectors. Asia-Pacific: Here are the reasons for downgrades and upgrades of APAC corporate debt (according to Fitch). Cryptocurrency: Coinbase sales surprised …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 10th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Nomura expects an uptick in the October CPI report, boosted by shelter and vehicle prices. Oxford Economics expects CPI to moderate in the second half of next year, especially as energy supply comes back online. But the CPI peak is yet to come. United Kingdom: The 30yr gilt yield is …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 9th, 2021”
