Greetings, United States: We have some updates on supply-chain challenges. Here’s the Port of LA container ships’ waiting time: Searches for items related to supply chain disruptions on Google: United Kingdom: Natural gas prices are surging again. Emerging Markets: Brazil’s central bank announced another aggressive rate hike and indicated there is at …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 9th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: It appears that the debt ceiling showdown has been averted for now. China: China’s government bonds have outperformed EM and US debt. Energy: Investment in hydrogen production has exploded. Equities: Buybacks have been a key component of US large-cap returns. Credit: The LIBOR deadline generated a surge …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 8th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The real fed funds rate is at extremes no matter which index is used to measure inflation. It points to extraordinary levels of monetary accommodation. Eurozone: Here are the latest French presidential election polls. Japan: Defense spending is surging. China: Despite all the bluster about staying the course …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 7th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: The Services ISM PMI hit another record high pointing to robust service-sector activity in Q4. United Kingdom: The market-based probability of a rate hike this year dropped to 25%. Related to the above, the pound hit the lowest level in a year vs. USD. China: Shares of tech firms …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 6th, 2021”
Greetings, United States: These rapid improvements in the labor market are allowing the Fed to accelerate QE taper. Eurozone: Suppliers to Germany’s automotive industry are gloomy. Asia-Pacific: South Korea’s domestic demand is highly sensitive to policy rate changes. China: Beijing gave leveraged developers some breathing room, but the credit crisis in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: Funds have been dumping the most expensive tech shares.. Momentum stocks continue to underperform. Rates: Speculative accounts are betting on further flattening in the 10yr – 30yr part of the curve. Cryptocurrency: Open interest in bitcoin’s futures market remains high despite last week’s sell-off. United States: The ADP employment …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 2nd, 2021”
Greetings, United States: Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone, focusing on inflation risks and surprising the markets. United Kingdom: Consumer activity is already impacted by the omicron news. Europe: Demand for put options jumped in recent days. Implied volatility climbed. China: The Markit report did, however, show moderation in price …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 1st, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: After a sharp rebound on Monday, global shares and US futures are lower this morning as the omicron jitters resurface. Credit: The stock rally on Monday didn’t reduce high-yield spreads very much as a bit of risk aversion returns to credit markets. Energy: US onshore oil and gas producers have …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 30th, 2021”
Greetings, Equities: The news of a COVID variant called omicron spreading in South Africa and elsewhere spooked investors around the world. Reopening stocks tumbled, … … with airlines getting hit particularly hard. Energy: Crude oil tumbled on Friday, with Brent stopping at the 200-day moving average. Implied vol spiked. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin’s correlation …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 29th, 2021”
Greetings, Administrative Update: As a reminder, The Daily Shot Brief will not be published on November 24th, 25th, and 26th. United States: The stock market initially cheered Jerome Powell’s reappointment. But then the realization set in that the Fed is now on course to accelerate monetary tightening. Eurozone: On the surface, issuance pressure …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 23rd, 2021”
