Greetings, United States: Long-term market-based inflation expectations are grinding higher. China: Exports accelerated last month, exceeding forecasts. The trade surplus hit a record high. Commodities: Gold outflows have been extreme. Equities: Citi’s sentiment index is deep in euphoria territory. Global Developments: This chart shows how speculative accounts are positioned in …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 7th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Will the government extend these emergency programs? The new bipartisan bill contemplates adding a few months. Here is a comparison to the GOP’s bill introduced a few months back. United Kingdom: The probability of the BoE taking rates into negative territory has diminished. Energy: Brent is testing $50/bbl. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 4th, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The Fed’s Beige Book report appears to be somewhat more upbeat. Here is the usage of the words “strong” and “weak.” Eurozone: The euro continues to climb, exacerbating disinflationary pressures. This trend is bound to make the ECB nervous. China: The nation’s service sector activity accelerated further last month. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 3rd, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Survey data, such as the ISM index above, point to improvements in business investment. China: Increased defaults will lead to tighter liquidity for non-bank financial institutions, according to TS Lombard. Emerging Markets: Mexico’s private credit continues to worsen. Commodities: Miners are adding new projects as iron ore prices rise. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 2nd, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Elevated excess savings have been supporting consumer spending. United Kingdom: The overall consumer credit has been declining rapidly as households pull back on borrowing and pay down their loans. Europe: How do EU households spend their money? Energy: Financial markets are not prepared for geopolitical risk in the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – December 1st, 2020”
Greetings, United States: Initial jobless claims rose again. Many Americans are about to lose their emergency unemployment benefits, widening the “K-shaped” recovery gap. Eurozone: The broad money supply (M3) growth continues to climb. Here are the year-over-year changes in business and consumer loans. The acceleration in M3 has been driven by the ECB, …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 30th, 2020”
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Thursday, Nov. 26th and Friday, Nov. 27th. Equities: The stock market is pricing in higher inflation ahead. Here is the relative performance of stocks that benefit from increased inflation vs. those that underperform when prices climb. Rates: US …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 25th, 2020”
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Thursday, Nov. 26th and Friday, Nov. 27th. Equities: Stock futures are higher as Biden’s formal transition begins. Investors also breathed a sigh of relief on Yellen’s nomination for the Treasury Secretary (as opposed to Elizabeth Warren, for example). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 24th, 2020”
Greetings, Administrative Update Please note that The Daily Shot will not be published on Thursday, Nov. 26th and Friday, Nov. 27th. United States: US daily new COVID cases are approaching 200k. Below is the share of US states (GDP-weighted) where daily infections are rising. China: The renminbi has not moved into the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 23rd, 2020”
Greetings, United States: The US Treasury is pulling the plug on some of the emergency programs it put in place with the Fed (red arrows below). China: Investors have been selling high-rated state-owned-enterprise (SOE) bonds in provinces where local governments have poor reputations, according to Gavekal. Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin ownership is becoming more …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 20th, 2020”
