From our sponsor: Greetings, The United States: Household consumption remains resilient despite the headwinds, with spending rising again in September. Robust spending means more hikes from the Fed and rates remaining higher for longer. Economists now see the terminal rate at 5%. The Eurozone: A large portion of the euro’s decline has been driven by …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 31st, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: First, the third-quarter GDP growth was a bit better than expected, with a decline in imports boosting net exports. Soft-data (survey-based) economic surprises are turning lower, which will be showing up in hard-data surprises in the months ahead. The United Kingdom: The “Truss premium” on mortgage rates remains elevated. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 28th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: To begin, consumer awareness of inflation news is very high, which could keep inflation elevated. There is a lot of talk about the Fed’s “pivot” (especially after the BoC’s dovish hike). Equities: Short-term options activity has exploded, boosting gamma spikes and exacerbating market moves. China: Semiconductors are now China’s …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 27th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Supply issues are over, amid falling demand. Here’s how US pandemic-era home price appreciation compares to other advanced economies. The United Kingdom: Corporate bankruptcies have been rising. Stock valuations remain near record lows relative to global peers. Asia-Pacific: Australia’s inflation report surprised to the upside. Commodities: Prepare to pay …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 26th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: To begin, households’ real excess savings remain elevated. The United Kingdom: Quantitative tightening is about to start in the UK. The Eurozone: The market is pricing in a 75 bps ECB rate hike this week. Equities: Earnings momentum has been negative for all S&P 500 sectors except energy. However, …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 25th, 2022”
Greetings, China: President Xi Jinping has secured a third term with an inner circle of allies. The markets are nervous about his new grip on power. Stocks are down sharply. Japan: Japan intervened in the currency markets again after dollar-yen crossed 150. The United Kingdom: Rishi Sunak is likely the next PM. Gilts surged …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Initial jobless claims are back at multi-year lows, pointing to persistent strength in the labor market. Also, the market expects a sharp decline in inflation over the next couple of years. The United Kingdom: The UK’s political turmoil continues. Emerging Markets: Argentina’s COVID-era economic recovery has been relatively strong. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 21st, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: The massive gap between wage growth for job stayers and job switchers illustrates the persistent bid for labor. It may take a recession to ease labor market imbalances. In the housing market, leading indicators point to severe weakness in residential construction going forward. Europe: This chart shows inflation rates across …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 20th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: Used car prices are now down 10% year-over-year, the biggest decline since the financial crisis. Housing valuations, measured in terms of the mortgage payment-to-income ratio, are hitting extreme levels. Canada: Housing starts surprised to the upside. China: China delayed the release of the Q3 GDP report. The authorities apparently need …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 19th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: To begin, the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker appears to have peaked. Consumer savings remain elevated, which should provide a cushion as the economy slows. The United Kingdom: The UK government is walking back most of the tax cuts. Energy: The COVID-era rebound in US oil production has …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 18th, 2022”
