Greetings, The United States: In the housing market, very few homeowners should end up with negative equity in the case of a significant decline in home prices. Restaurant and airline demand is now above pre-COVID levels. The United Kingdom: Price caps on energy bills are coming and are set to boost costs for …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 8th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: The US dollar continues to surge. Gasoline futures point to lower prices at the pump. China: The PBoC is getting increasingly aggressive in its efforts to stabilize the renminbi. The spread between the latest exchange rate fix and market expectations hit a new high. Stock continue to decline in Hong …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 7th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: The probability of a 75 bps Fed rate hike this month dropped in response to the employment report as labor force participation improved and wage growth edged lower. The labor market is showing signs of loosening. The ISM Manufacturing PMI held up well in August, suggesting that factory activity remains …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 6th, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: To begin, economists expect home price appreciation in the US to slow sharply next year. US real yields continue to climb, pressuring stocks. The Eurozone: At the Eurozone level, the CPI surprised to the upside again, hitting a new high. Core inflation is also surging (2nd panel). …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – September 1st, 2022”
Greetings, The United States: There are still two job openings per every unemployed worker in the US. The Fed would like to see this ratio come down meaningfully. Until then, the central bank will continue to pressure the demand side of the economy. The market now expects the Fed to increase rates by another …
Greetings, The United States: To begin, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech brought the market into a closer alignment with the FOMC’s dot plot. With slowing demand in the housing market, more sellers are switching their listings to rentals. The Eurozone: A 75 bps ECB rate hike in September looks increasingly likely. China: To counter …
Greetings, The United States: On Friday, Jerome Powell reminded the markets not to expect a “pivot” from the US central bank. They will keep at raising rates until price stability is restored. Real yields jumped as a result. This information put downward pressure on stocks. The Eurozone: ECB officials also struck a hawkish tone …
Greetings, The United States: Q2 GDP growth was revised higher. This revision is due to a boost from initially reported consumer spending. China: According to Gavekal Research, developers’ onshore debt extensions have been rapidly accumulating. Next year’s maturity wall looks alarming. Energy: US frackers are expected to make $200 billion this year. …
Greetings, The United States: To begin, capital goods orders and shipments growth (a proxy for business investment) remained robust in July. In the labor market, unemployment duration continues to move lower (workers who lost jobs find new employment quickly). The Eurozone: Germany’s natural gas inventories will be ready for winter, albeit at …
Greetings, The United States: New home sales slumped last month, down more than 30% compared to last year. The Eurozone: PMI data looks recessionary (<50). The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing based upon a monthly survey of supply chain managers. On a …
