Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

The United States: Jobless claims remain elevated relative to last year.

The Eurozone: The euro surged on hawkish comments from the ECB.

China: Youth unemployment remains elevated, dampening consumer confidence.

Cryptocurrency: BlackRock filed paperwork to form a spot-bitcoin ETF.

Equities: Retail investor purchases appear to have peaked for now.

Credit: Regional bank spreads are drifting lower but still elevated.

Food for Thought: Recently IPO’d tech companies’ net profit margins:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  The Fed delivered a “hawkish pause” this month, with the dot-plot signaling another 50 bps of rate hikes this year. Rate projections also moved higher for 2024 and 2025.

The headline PPI surprised to the downside, with producer prices declining in May.

Japan:  Will the BoJ relax its yield curve control as inflation runs hot?

Asia-Pacific: New Zealand entered a technical recession in Q1.

Credit: Deutsche Bank predicts substantial credit downgrades in CLO collateral this year.

Commodities: Have US cattle futures finally peaked?

Cryptocurrency: Crypto liquidity is well off its peak in 2021.

Food for Thought: Semiconductor node size:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  The CPI report was roughly in line with expectations, …

… with core inflation remaining stubbornly high.

Europe: This chart shows the percentage of businesses conducting remote meetings across the EU.

Commodities: Here is a look at top lithium producers.

Credit: CRE credit supply and demand:

Global Developments: The Fed is priced to cut far more than other G10 central banks.

Food for Thought: Amounts wagered on sports events since June 2018 by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  Gains in rental costs have been slowing on a year-over-year basis.

Subdued demand for cardboard boxes suggests a deceleration in economic activity.

Europe: Switzerland’s central bank continues to reduce liquidity in the financial system.

Energy: The global oil market remains in surplus.

Equities: Market breadth has been weak.

Credit: Investors are now overweight corporate bonds.

Food for Thought: Mass incarceration in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  Household savings remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

Europe: Norway’s CPI report was a shocker.

The market now expects the Fed to complete its rate cuts near 3.5% (in H2 2025).

Emerging Markets: Saudi Arabia’s PIF is expected to become the largest sovereign wealth fund by 2030.

Cryptocurrency: It was a tough week for crypto.

Equities: Deutsche Bank’s aggregate positioning indicator now shows overweight positioning.

Food for Thought: Average hourly wages for US teens:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  The seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims jumped last week.

The bond market is pricing rapid inflation “normalization” over the coming months.

The Eurozone: Revised GDP figures show a mild technical recession in the euro area

Emerging Markets: The Russian ruble is back below pre-war levels.

Commodities: US farm sentiment deteriorated in May due to weak grain prices.

Equities: Retail investors are back in the market.

Food for Thought: Children/teens deaths from motor vehicles and firearms:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States:  Manufacturing confidence has been deteriorating. Here is the sentiment index from the National Association of Manufacturers.

Equities: Small caps (IWM) have sharply outperformed the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the past couple of days.

Canada: Following the surprise 25bp rate hike, the market sees the overnight rate hitting 5.14% by the end of the year.

The Eurozone: This chart shows inflation trajectories projected by inflation swaps.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s broad inflation index declined by most on record (going back to the 1940s). This measure includes consumer, wholesale, and construction prices.

Capital Economics sees EM rate cuts accelerating into next year.

Energy: US oil production hit the highest level since early 2020.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is a look into Tesla’s profit margin:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States:  Investors have been scaling back house purchases.

The United Kingdom: Total construction activity remained in growth mode last month. But housing activity has been crashing.

Asia-Pacific: Tawian’s core inflation eased in May.

Emerging Markets: The Turkish lira is in freefall amid growing indications that policymakers might be reducing their efforts to bolster the currency.

Cryptocurrency: Crypto trading volume ticked higher after the SEC’s lawsuit against Coinbase.

Equities: Bank shares have been staging a rebound.

Food for Thought: What are your children worried about at school?

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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Greetings,

The United States:   The ISM Services PMI signals stalled business activity growth in May.

The Eurozone: The Euro has consolidated its gains versus the dollar and Swiss franc this year, although its short-term uptrend remains intact versus an equal-weighted basket of interest rate-sensitive currencies such as AUD, CAD, and GBP.

Japan: Household spending in April was below forecasts.

Australia: The RBA caught markets off guard with an unexpected rate hike while also cautioning about further impending increases. Here is the yield curve.

Cryptocurrency:  Bitcoin saw a spike in long liquidations on Monday as the crypto’s price fell below $26K. News of the SEC’s lawsuit against Binance and its CEO unsettled crypto markets.

Equities: Here is a look at market fear indicators.

Food for Thought: Here are states with high cybercrime-related losses:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  The Household Survey revealed a decline in job numbers during the month of May. Note that the Household Survey is an alternative measure to the Establishment Survey that provides the official employment figures.

Equities: Globally, capital-scarce companies (energy, shipping, and some LatAm stocks) have outperformed capital-abundant companies (US software and entertainment stocks) over the past year.

Credit: Now that the debt ceiling has been lifted, the supply of T-bills is expected to surge.

The Eurozone: Economic indicators in the Eurozone point to a supportive backdrop for bonds.

Emerging Markets: The market is pricing in a sharp devaluation in the Nigerian naira. Here is the one-month forward contract.

Global Developments: This chart shows year-to-date returns for select currencies.

Food for Thought: Here are penny production costs to the US Treasury:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

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