Author: The Daily Shot Editor

Greetings,

The United Kingdom: Short-term rates continue to surge, with markets pricing multiple BoE rate hikes ahead.

Elevated wage growth and extreme energy price shock explain why UK CPI has been outpacing other economies.

The United States: The supply of homes for sale continues to sink.

Equities: The Nasdaq 100 trailing PE ratio jumped by almost 50% over the past six months – a highly unusual move.

Credit: With many existing CLOs ending their reinvestment periods, new CLOs will have no shortage of product to buy.

Emerging Markets: Mexico stands to gain from the US-China decoupling.

Commodities: US grains continue to surge as crop conditions deteriorate. Here is Bloomberg’s grain index:

Food for Thought: Here is New Zealand’s sheep-to-people ratio:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: The seasonally-adjusted gain in housing starts was the highest in decades

The United Kingdom: The CPI report delivered yet another shocker, with core inflation breaching 7%. We will have more on the inflation report tomorrow.

Emerging Markets: South Africa’s leading indicator tumbled in April.

Cryptocurrency: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index entered “greed” territory on Tuesday.

Commodities: Shares of gold miners took a hit on Tuesday.

Equities: US stocks’ rolling 10-year Sharpe ratio crossed above one before entering the recent bear market. This is consistent with previous bubble peaks.

Food for Thought: Lastly, the change in workers relocating for a new job:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Homebuilder sentiment improved again this month as sales expectations climbed.

Equities: The Nasdaq tends to rise into the final Fed rate hike.

Credit: So far, there has been no liquidity drain since the debt ceiling deal. According to Deutsche Bank, the increase in T-Bill issuance has been (roughly) fully absorbed by a rotation of liquidity away from the Fed’s RRP facility.

The Eurozone: The bounce in EUR/USD in recent weeks has not been matched by interest rate differentials.

Japan: The yen typically appreciates during recessions.

Commodities: How does El Niño impact grain crops?

Food for Thought: Lastly, these are the top seven countries international students in the US are from:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States: Jobless claims remain elevated relative to last year.

The Eurozone: The euro surged on hawkish comments from the ECB.

China: Youth unemployment remains elevated, dampening consumer confidence.

Cryptocurrency: BlackRock filed paperwork to form a spot-bitcoin ETF.

Equities: Retail investor purchases appear to have peaked for now.

Credit: Regional bank spreads are drifting lower but still elevated.

Food for Thought: Recently IPO’d tech companies’ net profit margins:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  The Fed delivered a “hawkish pause” this month, with the dot-plot signaling another 50 bps of rate hikes this year. Rate projections also moved higher for 2024 and 2025.

The headline PPI surprised to the downside, with producer prices declining in May.

Japan:  Will the BoJ relax its yield curve control as inflation runs hot?

Asia-Pacific: New Zealand entered a technical recession in Q1.

Credit: Deutsche Bank predicts substantial credit downgrades in CLO collateral this year.

Commodities: Have US cattle futures finally peaked?

Cryptocurrency: Crypto liquidity is well off its peak in 2021.

Food for Thought: Semiconductor node size:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  The CPI report was roughly in line with expectations, …

… with core inflation remaining stubbornly high.

Europe: This chart shows the percentage of businesses conducting remote meetings across the EU.

Commodities: Here is a look at top lithium producers.

Credit: CRE credit supply and demand:

Global Developments: The Fed is priced to cut far more than other G10 central banks.

Food for Thought: Amounts wagered on sports events since June 2018 by state:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  Gains in rental costs have been slowing on a year-over-year basis.

Subdued demand for cardboard boxes suggests a deceleration in economic activity.

Europe: Switzerland’s central bank continues to reduce liquidity in the financial system.

Energy: The global oil market remains in surplus.

Equities: Market breadth has been weak.

Credit: Investors are now overweight corporate bonds.

Food for Thought: Mass incarceration in the US:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  Household savings remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

Europe: Norway’s CPI report was a shocker.

The market now expects the Fed to complete its rate cuts near 3.5% (in H2 2025).

Emerging Markets: Saudi Arabia’s PIF is expected to become the largest sovereign wealth fund by 2030.

Cryptocurrency: It was a tough week for crypto.

Equities: Deutsche Bank’s aggregate positioning indicator now shows overweight positioning.

Food for Thought: Average hourly wages for US teens:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily ShotAverage hourly wages for US teens: Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  The seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims jumped last week.

The bond market is pricing rapid inflation “normalization” over the coming months.

The Eurozone: Revised GDP figures show a mild technical recession in the euro area

Emerging Markets: The Russian ruble is back below pre-war levels.

Commodities: US farm sentiment deteriorated in May due to weak grain prices.

Equities: Retail investors are back in the market.

Food for Thought: Children/teens deaths from motor vehicles and firearms:

Edited by Josh Oldmixon

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief

Greetings,

The United States:  Manufacturing confidence has been deteriorating. Here is the sentiment index from the National Association of Manufacturers.

Equities: Small caps (IWM) have sharply outperformed the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the past couple of days.

Canada: Following the surprise 25bp rate hike, the market sees the overnight rate hitting 5.14% by the end of the year.

The Eurozone: This chart shows inflation trajectories projected by inflation swaps.

Emerging Markets: Brazil’s broad inflation index declined by most on record (going back to the 1940s). This measure includes consumer, wholesale, and construction prices.

Capital Economics sees EM rate cuts accelerating into next year.

Energy: US oil production hit the highest level since early 2020.

Food for Thought: Lastly, here is a look into Tesla’s profit margin:

Edited by William Villacis

Contact the Daily Shot Editor: Brief@DailyShotResearch.com

Subscribe to the Daily Shot Brief