Greetings, The United States: The US agricultural sentiment index (Ag Economy Barometer) improved in October on hopes that the NAFTA 2.0 deal will ease trade tensions. China:Goldman’s money-supply indicator for China has diverged from the nation’s credit growth. Eurozone: Economists expect rising wages to nudge the Eurozone’s inflation rate higher. Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 7th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the difference between CEOs’ future expectations and their assessment of the present situation. The second chart has the same measure for the consumer. China: The Caixin/Markit Composite PMI (manufacturing + services) is approaching 50 (business activity growth is stalling). Europe: Finally, this chart shows government debt …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 6th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows US household formation over time (renters vs. homeowners). China: This chart shows the RMB (yuan) usage in foreign payments. The Eurozone: Switzerland’s PMI is declining quickly (yesterday we saw sagging economic confidence – see chart). Equities: Small banks have boosted their borrowing in recent months …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 2nd, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Americans should expect a bump in tax refunds next year (see Morgan Stanley’s comments below). China: This chart shows how Beijing has been “guiding” the housing market. Do the current levels suggest that housing policy tightening is coming? The Eurozone: Is business investment about to slow? Equities: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – November 1st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Finally, the chart below shows how different the run-up in federal debt was in the 1980s vs. over the past decade. China: Will stronger fixed asset investment offset some of the weakness in manufacturing exports? The Eurozone: Here are the updated German political poll results. Equities: Growth …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 31st, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: This chart shows the government’s contribution to the GDP growth (federal, state and local). Global Developments: Here is TD’s global macro risks index. China: The Q4 GDP growth is shaping up to be disappointing (as tariffs hit). The Eurozone: Here are the components of the French Q3 GDP …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 30th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: The recent tightening in financial conditions has been unusually sharp. Global Developments: Tighter financial conditions should further slow growth in advanced economies. China: Domestic private firms increasingly dominate China’s exports. The Eurozone: Nonperforming loan percentages have declined across the board. But is it over for this downward trend? …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 29th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Do rising wages boost inflation? The link is now much weaker than in the past. Global Developments: When markets’ long-term expectations of rates meet the Fed’s long-term policy rate projections, stock market volatility ensues. China: Inflows into China’s domestic bond markets have slowed sharply. The Eurozone: Here are …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 26th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: Let’s begin with this chart of the 3M Corporation’s share price vs. the ISM manufacturing activity index. What is the market telling us? Global Developments: Germany’s Rhine river water levels are at extreme lows, making it increasingly challenging to transport fuel into parts of Europe. China: Fund flows into …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 24th, 2018”
Greetings, The United States: According to the NFIB’s small business survey, the US labor force participation rate should improve going forward. Global Developments: How have the stock markets around the world reacted to negative and positive trade war news? China: These are the sources of revenue for China’s government. The Eurozone: …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – October 23rd, 2018”
