Greetings, The United States: Consumer inflation expectations continue to drift lower. The Eurozone: Here is the UBS Eurozone economic surprise index. Equities: It should be a strong year for share buybacks. China: Housing inventories continue to moderate. Global Developments: This chart shows the carry (short-term rate differential) for the US dollar vs. select currencies. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 27th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Consumer surveys point to downside risks to vehicle sales. The Eurozone: Here are the details of Germany’s GDP growth. Equities: This chart shows the percentage of the S&P 500 stocks trading above the 50-day moving average. China: F/X flows turned positive. Global Developments: Which nations’ business cycles are most …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 26th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Many analysts are predicting that the next rate change by the Fed will be a cut. Will the easing of trade tensions with China change this view? The Eurozone: Based on historical PMI “price pressure” responses (and falling inflation expectations above), the ECB should be easing in the current environment. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 25th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The US GDP growth has slowed but is expected to remain above potential. The Eurozone: Below are the contributions to the euro area’s industrial production. Equities: Most firms in the S&P 500 are not “cash-rich” – the data is skewed by the top 5% of the companies. Credit: Investment-grade CDX spread (yellow) …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 21st, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: The February Sales Managers’ Index (SMI) showed further moderation in US business growth. Business confidence and hiring indices slumped. The Eurozone: Portfolio outflows have worsened at the end of 2018. Will we see a reversal this year? Equities: Here is the percentage of the S&P 500 stocks that are above the …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 20th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Home sales should strengthen. The Eurozone: This fascinating chart compares the relative popularity of Italy’s populist parties with the 10-year Italian government bond spread. Equities: There has been quite a bit of hype about the possibility of an earnings recession. Is it overblown? Credit: These two charts show ABS and CMBS yearly …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 15th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States:Here is the trend in bankruptcies and foreclosures. The Eurozone: Here is the industrial production breakdown. Is the worst over for the Eurozone’s industrial output? Equities: Earnings recessions haven’t typically coincided with economic downturns in recent years. Credit: A weak CLO market has been a drag on leveraged loan performance. …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 14th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: Has the CBO underestimated the federal deficit in its latest forecasts? The Eurozone: This scatterplot shows industrial confidence vs. sensitivity to Chinese demand. Equities: This chart shows the latest earnings growth expectations for 2019. Credit: Leveraged finance default rates continue to drift lower. Energy: The WTI curve is still in contango while …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 12th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: In recent years, the US has been able to run substantial budget deficits without paying higher costs for lax fiscal policy. Is the “free lunch” over? The Eurozone: The ECB is defending its QE program, suggesting that it helped reduce inequality. Equities: Futures-based Fed rate hike expectations have diverged from the stock …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 11th, 2019”
Greetings, The United States: After a relatively strong holiday shopping season, retail sales weakened sharply in January. Below is Morgan Stanley’s retail sales tracker. Emerging Markets: Investors pulled quite a bit of capital out of South Africa last year. The Eurozone: Has the Eurozone’s unemployment rate bottomed? Equities: The Fear & Greed index is rapidly …
Continue reading “The Daily Shot Brief – February 7th, 2019”
